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是寒风渐起,还是累累硕果?市场仍存在不少争议—— 债市入秋待破局

2017-09-21 07:17:46   中国经济网

李诗也认为,下半年资金面预计将相对平稳,流动性冲击逐渐减弱,同时部分银行在完成业务自查和MPA考核后,将释放出更多的配置资金,其配置需求的增加也对债市二级市场形成提振。此外,上半年债券收益率中枢不断抬升,其配置价值逐步显现;今年以来信用环境较去年明显好转,新增违约较少,机构风险偏好的回升也推动二级市场交易情况向好。

人民币汇率的企稳也可能成为行情的另一支撑。5月以来,人民币汇率大幅走升,进一步增加了中国债市的吸引力。中信证券研究部固定收益首席分析师明明认为,人民币升值的步伐或将持续,这有利于吸引外资进入中国资本市场,对我国债市收益率形成支撑。

机会还是趋势?

目前,债市迎来的是短暂的交易性机会还是趋势性的回暖?

“债市近期的大涨,属于修复性调整。”俞春江认为,近期人民币兑美元汇率持续升值,资金回流进一步改善了流动性。境外机构连续6个月增持人民币债券,也利好于债市。“短期内修复性调整或将继续,债市压力有所减弱。”俞春江表示,不过,在同业存单大量到期、MPA考核等因素共同作用下,9月份资金面宽松的可能性不大,回暖基础尚不牢固,行情还有可能出现反复。

还有分析认为,债市交易窗口已经打开,但长期行情仍有赖于资金面松绑。招商银行资产管理部刘东亮预计,货币政策与监管政策的严厉程度短期内难有超预期表现,接下来利率波动中枢下行、利率监管溢价修复的可能性较大,债市波段交易的窗口可能已经打开。尤其是如果人民币近期大幅升值导致企业持续结汇,进而带来外汇占款回升转正,对基础货币缺口构成补充,那么短期内资金面对债市的制约作用将趋于弱化。

“四季度债市阶段性交易机会能够持续多久,最终利率下行幅度有多大,有赖于资金面不那么紧张的阶段能持续多久。”刘东亮表示,短期行情能否演变为中期甚至长期行情,则取决于资金面何时会出现实质性放松,“对债市能否有长期行情仍需保持谨慎,相对而言,短期波段交易行情的确定性更高”。

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