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慢牛行情复苏二级债基率先反弹

2017-09-18 07:06:38   中国经济网

中国基金报记者 李沪生

近期,央行重启28天逆回购,超量续作MLF,不少机构人士认为债市似有回暖信号。截至9月15日,10年期国债收益率更是下跌至3.5813%,较8月初高点下跌近30个BP,债市配置价值更加凸显。

记者注意到,年中以来,二级债基率先出现反弹,多只基金已经收复上半年的失地,或许未来表现更具有空间。

看好债市行情

万家基金指出,目前债市情绪显著好转,继续看好债市慢牛。“中国央行重启28天逆回购,超量续作MLF。受此影响叠加同业存单利率下行,债市利率情绪显著好转,成交火爆,利率大幅下行。我们仍维持6月初提出的债市拐点判断,债市已经高位震荡3个多月,呈现出上行钝化特征,继续看好债市慢牛。”长信基金认为,展望后市,国内宏观经济持续向好,韧性十足;同时密切关注相关政策颁布和经济基本面数据;市场情绪方面,观望情绪较重,震荡格局下配置机会和交易机会交替出现。可转债开启信用申购,随着一级市场供给加速,打新的累积收益预期可观。持续寻找转债发行中的正股博弈机会,以获得交易性收益。

博时基金首席宏观策略分析师魏凤春也指出,中美国债利差加大叠加人民币升值,外部环境并不支持国内债市收益率继续上行。9月央行出于维稳考虑,或对跨季节流动性做出主动调节,因此债市或出现与6月类似的交易型机会,高等级中短久期信用债相对占优。

二级债基收复失地

二级债基已经率先出现复苏。据wind数据显示,截至9月15日,今年来1844只披露业绩的债券型基金(A、B类分开统计)平均业绩仅为1.93%。其中,由于大额赎回近20只债券基金份额净值暴涨在10%以上。

而收益超过5%的74只基金中,二级债基57只占比高达77.03%。上述中型基金公司固收总监表示,随着债券市场的逐渐复苏,二级债基更加容易率先反弹。

仅9月以来,就有交银强化回报C、交银强化回报AB、交银定期支付月月丰A等多只二级债基基金单月收益率在2%以上。

而在上半年业绩亏损超过2%的多只基金中,多只二级债基已经收复失地。招商安本、创金合信聚利C、民生加银新收益C、创金合信聚利A、民生加银新收益A分别在上半年出现2.75%、2.54%、2.51%、2.4%、2.4%的亏损,但截至9月15日,今年来的收益均已经变为0.47%、0.19%、0.42%、0.46%、0.52%。

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