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散户参与仅占0.1% 可转债投资方兴未艾

2017-09-21 07:12:15   中国经济网

可转债是指可以转换为发行公司股票的债券。购买者可以自己决定是否行使转换权。所以,可转债虽是债券,但兼具股票特性,具有“债券收益+向上弹性”的特征。目前来看,未来可转债市场有三大投资机会:

一是规模大增带来长期投资机会。可转债原本属于小众市场,但受今年2月的再融资新规影响,可转债作为定增的替代,预案大幅增长。规模和成交活跃度的提升对可转债市场来说是重大利好。2017年初至9月9日,已有108家公司公布可转债预案,计划发行规模超2500亿元。今年年初可转债存量规模仅有344亿元,预计年底规模将达2000亿元。

转债火爆的原因在于今年2月17日“再融资新规”的发布。新规限制了定增,提出:“严格再融资审核标准和条件,解决非公开发行与其他融资方式失衡的结构性问题,发展可转债和优先股品种,抑制上市公司过度融资行为。”受此影响,定增市场的规模快速萎缩,今年2月—6月平均募资规模仅为687亿元,较去年同期接近“腰斩”。可转债作为定增的替代方案,符合政策导向的同时,还具有低成本、不立即摊薄股权等优点。

二是信用申购,发行提速。根据海通证券的研究,存量转债平均发行耗时12.9个月,但截至9月8日,今年已发行转债平均耗时为11.7个月,时间已出现缩短。9月8日修订后的《证券发行与承销管理办法》已正式落地,将可转债、可交换债发行方式由资金申购改为信用申购,以解决可转债和可交换债发行过程中产生的较大规模资金冻结问题。目前,网下发行不再按申购金额的固定比例收取定金,而是直接收取不超过50万元的定金;网上发行不再预缴定金。之前有不少上市公司发行可转债的流程受到拟出台新规的影响而放缓,信用申购实施之后,监管层不必担心大规模资金冻结,可转债的发行速度很可能将迅速提升。

三是优质公司参与。可转债扩容后,不少龙头企业也参与到转债发行,优质企业基本覆盖了各个行业。另外,银行等金融转债大幅放量。今年以来已有9家银行发行可转债或公告相关预案,1665亿元的规模为过去10年银行可转债规模的两倍左右。优质公司转债吸引力很大,也将提升转债市场的活跃度。

兴全可转债基金经理张亚辉认为,总体来看,未来两三年可转债市场的投资机会将会较为明确,新增标的的投资机会或将高于现有标的,当然也需要对背后的发行主体上市公司进行细致的分析和调研。

可转债是“涨起来像股,跌起来像债”的品种,转债市场扩容将改变这一市场的小众特征。但由于转债投资的专业性要求,普通投资者很少直接参与其一级、二级市场,例如今年7月发行的国君转债,参与打新的个人投资者账户数仅占0.1%。所以对于普通投资者来说,投资可转债基金就是一个不错的选择。

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