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应用需求爆发 芯片行业迎成长拐点

2017-09-21 07:17:44   中国经济网

昨日,芯片国产化概念彻底“亮”了,华天科技、通富微电、士兰微、中颖电子、紫光国芯、晶方科技等一批股票集体涨停,推动概念指数大涨5.37%,成为全天涨幅最好、市场关注度最高的概念热点。

券商机构人士表示,全球半导体超级周期逻辑还在不断深化,“硅片供需剪刀差”愈演愈烈,半导体周期持续性、力度超过市场及产业周期核心原因也在这里,而具体演化路径,半年来已经得到深度验证。从美股来看,半导体及半导体设备板块在上周领涨所有细分板块,涨幅高达5.38%。“全球超级周持续+国内科技红利拐点”将迎来的是未来5年的产业型机会,芯片行业正进入成长性拐点。

成长确定性强

近期,华为在柏林消费电子展(IFA)上发布全球首款移动端AI芯片——处理器麒麟970.

麒麟970是全球首款搭载神经网络处理单元NPU的异动端SOC芯片,集成了8核CPU、12核GPU、麒麟NPU、图像DSP、双ISP、4.5G LTE Modem等,在性能上远超iPhone 7Plus、三星S8,其CPU采用了目前ARM能效比最高的Cortex-A73方案,性能卓越,能效出众。

民生证券分析师郑平认为,麒麟970是国产处理器芯片的重大突破,将引领人工智能芯片从云端加速进入移动端。苹果、高通等科技企业正布局移动端AI生态,在今年的WWDC大会上,高通发布机器学习框架OpenM,苹果也正在研发Neural Enginede的AI芯片。“凭借苹果在消费电子领域的影响力,以及高通在移动终端芯片领域的主导地位,移动AI芯片生态将在苹果、高通等企业引领下加速发展。”

目前来看,国内半导体产业投资建设稳步推进,台积电南京和英特尔大连的产能建设推进逐步进入后期,量产计划也随着逐步开始。新建项目方面,博世预计将会在南京投资建设智能化助力器基地,徐州则计划建设传感器基地。此外,英伟达的靓丽财报以及日本经济产业省要出资采购设备和软件协助人工智能的研发,也反映了芯片行业受关注度的提升。

随着四季度临近,全球三大DRAM厂陆续召开针对明年产能规划的年度战略会议。据集邦咨询半导体研究中心调查,2018年个DRAM厂的资本支出计划皆倾向保守。预计2018年DRAM产业供给增长率将维持在近年低点,低于需求增速,供给吃紧的态势将延续。价格方面,过去一年DRAM已经实现翻倍。

华金证券认为,集成电路月度数据持续改善,在逐步进入产业旺季的过程中,存储器价格再次上升进一步明确了行业的景气状态。本月许多厂商纷纷在半年报方面给出了对于未来的预期,下游应用市场尽管智能手机等通讯设备依然是主流,但汽车电子和人工智能方面的需求增长速度较快,成为行业成长的驱动因素。

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