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这个民族的建国大业如果实现 或将改变中东

2017-09-25 14:57:25   

以色列是公开支持库尔德人建国,其目的很明显,削弱中东几个国家的综合实力,有利于自身维护自身的安全。

库尔德自治区在打击极端组织“伊斯兰国”发挥的作用得到了外界的认可,同时伊拉克中央政府的控制力有所下降,使库尔德人再次看到独立建国的机会。然而,库尔德人的建国梦依然十分遥远。

建国并非易事

不出意外,公投会获得通过,但实现真正建国却存在诸多障碍。

首先,伊拉克、土耳其和伊朗政府已经表达了强烈反对态度,强推建国会使库尔德自治区和伊拉克中央政府矛盾进一步计划,双方最终可能走向兵戎相见。

中东的政治地震

最后,库尔德自治区独立建国从长期看会改变中东的地缘政治格局,土耳其、伊朗和叙利亚政府都会担心此举产生连锁反应,提高警惕并采取更加强力措施。

此外,国际社会总体上对公投也持否定态度。

因此,伊拉克库尔德人建国的条件依然不成熟,建立“库尔德国”依然是一个遥远的梦。

文/丛培影 中国青年政治学院政治学与国际关系研究所副所长、以色列海法大学博士后

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