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这个民族的建国大业如果实现 或将改变中东

2017-09-25 14:57:25   

伊拉克的库尔德人地位处于中等地位,尤其是在萨达姆政权被推翻后,其社会地位得到了进一步的提升,库尔德人和什叶、逊尼两大派穆斯林分享伊拉克政治权力。

日前,伊拉克联邦最高法院做出裁决要求库尔德自治区停止公投,伊拉克、土耳其、伊朗等国政府对公投表示强烈反对,联合国联合国特使也敦促库尔德人放弃公投,与政府展开对话。

此次公投独立虽备受关注,但实现的难度不小,有分析就指出,即使公投结果是支持独立,那也只相当于库尔德人建国备忘录而已,不会产生任何制度上的影响,原因是公投结果本身不具有法律约束力。

库尔德自治区的政治现实

在外界看来,伊拉克库尔德自治区呈现出与伊拉克完全不同的景象,局势安全、政治多元、经济发展、社会稳定。也有分析人士指出,库尔德自治区的政治权力其实完全由两大政党掌握,它们分别是现任总统巴尔扎尼领导的“库尔德民主党”(KDP)和前总统塔拉巴尼领导的“库尔德爱国联盟”(PUK)。

两党背后是巴尔扎尼和塔拉巴尼为首的两大家族,他们控制当地的社会资源,并不断巩固其权力基础。2003年到2013年,随着石油收入的增加和国际投资的不断涌入,库尔德自治区经济增速显著,但经济收益并没有惠及到所有的库尔德人,只是令当地精英和外国投资者获益较多,引发了民众不满。

政治上的稳定和经济上的繁荣,使KDP和PUK稳固了对权力和资源的掌控,尤其控制了具有战略价值的能源部门。两大政党和两大家族通过协商在一定程度上达成默契,共同分享财富和权力。比如,巴尔扎尼此前支持塔拉巴尼寻求成为伊拉克总统,塔拉巴尼则让KDP主导自治区政府。现实中,这已经形成了在库尔德自治区所谓的“寡头政治”。随着库尔德自治区社会经济的不断发展,库尔德人更希望打破这种寡头政治,寻求社会的公正、民主、法制和透明。

伊拉克库尔德自治区有丰富的油气资源,很多大的西方公司和像土耳其这样的地区大国在库尔德自治区在能源领域都进行了大规模的投资。

因此,不断走向现代化和世俗化的库尔德社会对于整个地区局势的走向和打击宗教极端主义都具有重要意义。

在库尔德人独立建国的问题上,美国的态度比较暧昧,一方面认为库尔德人是打击极端主义可以依靠的力量,也是中东地区不断实现民主、稳定和繁荣的典范,另一方面,有迫于土耳其和伊拉克政府的反对,而不能公开表态。

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