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库尔德能否立国 命脉在这个国家手里

2017-09-26 15:54:21   

尽管经历了一些波折,但是库尔德独立公投仍然如期举行。
伊拉克库尔德公投以及随后可能产生的独立的库尔德国家,使得除了伊拉克中央政府之外的周边邻国十分担心,包括伊朗、土耳其以及美国,都明确表示了反对,似乎伊拉克库尔德已经受到了来自于四面八方的压力,其公投并且谋求政治独立的意愿,将面临着夭折的可能。

伊拉克库尔德人在25日的独立公投中排队投票(法新社)

这些外部压力,首先来自于伊拉克中央政府,伊拉克中央政府采取了包括比如接管机机场等交通重地,要求伊拉克政府内的库尔德公务员不得参与等,而伊朗也暂停了与伊拉克库尔德地区的空中交通,希望通过封锁交通的方式,给伊拉克库尔德施加压力。

可以说,伊拉克独立公投,开始受到来自于外部的巨大干扰。

但是这些压力对于伊拉克库尔德人来说,恐怕并不致命。伊拉克库尔德人尽管在历史上和现实上与伊拉克中央政府关系紧密,而且很多伊拉克库尔德人也生活在伊拉克的诸多大城市,如巴格达、巴士拉和萨麦拉,其中巴格达据称有100万库尔德人。

但是在过去十多年间,随着伊拉克北部库尔德控制区实际“准独立”状态的建立,伊拉克库尔德的经济和交通重心,也逐渐由南部与伊拉克内地的联系,转变为通过北方与土耳其的联系。

尤其是多年以前贯通伊拉克库尔德自治区——土耳其的天然气管道的修筑,帮助伊拉克库尔德人将自己的天然气资源通过土耳其出口到欧洲,赚取大量的外汇。

由于伊拉克库尔德地区经济发展相对孱弱,在历史上一直依赖农业和手工业,成为北部土耳其和南部伊拉克市场的重要部分,因此在当前土耳其与伊拉克库尔德经贸关系日益密切的背景下,土耳其在伊拉克库尔德公投问题上的立场也就显得十分关键。

土耳其国内的政党因素,也就是现任总统埃尔多安领导的“正义与发展党”和土耳其议会在野党之一的右翼政党“民族行动党”之间的相互关系。

作为一个右翼的民族主义政党,“民族行动党”一直以来十分激烈的反对土耳其发展与伊拉克库尔德自治政府的关系,并且强烈反对伊拉克库尔德自治政府组织的公投。因此埃尔多安需要考虑维系与“民族行动党”之间的关系,也就需要在库尔德问题上发出强硬的表态。

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