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货币政策基调不变 降准或成选项

2017-09-11 07:12:38   中国经济网

从人民币汇率角度来看,9月8日,人民币对美元中间价报6.5032,较前一交易日上涨237点,这是中间价连续第10个交易日上调,也创2011年初以来最长连涨纪录。

对外经贸大学校长助理丁志杰表示,目前人民币汇率升值的态势,给货币政策选择提供了更大的空间。过去大家担心降准会给人民币带来贬值压力,现在这种担心不存在了。因此,通过降准的方法来释放流动性成为可能的政策选项。这是货币政策回归常态化的重要举措,并不是所谓的“大水漫灌”。

从银行间市场流动性角度来看,九州证券首席经济学家邓海清表示,银行间市场流动性偏紧态势明显。2017年前两个季度超储率均值1.35%,较2016年全年超储率均值2.05%下降0.7个百分点,2017年以来用超储率衡量的银行间市场流动性明显偏紧。从大银行和中小银行的结构上看,银行间流动性同样“问题重重”。他表示,降准替代外占、缓解流动性总量及结构矛盾,是最佳之选。“目前央行降准已经具备较好的政策窗口期。”

中国民生银行首席研究员温彬在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,外汇占款从27.3万亿元的最高点下降到目前的21.5万亿元;法定存款准备金率从21.5%的最高点下降到目前的17%。自2016年3月降准至今,央行主要通过“逆回购+MLF”方式补充流动性。截至今年8月末,MLF余额4.3万亿元,比2016年2月末增加3万亿元,基本对冲了外汇占款同期减少的2.4万亿元。不过这种方式有两个缺陷:一是成本高,银行获得1年期MLF利率为3.2%,而法定存款准备金利率为1.62%。二是不对称,只有大中型银行才有机会直接从央行获得MLF支持。央行之所以未能降准,主要是担心形成人民币贬值预期。当前,人民币升值预期强化,可以适时降准,并逐步回笼MLF,此举不仅可以降低金融机构自身融资成本,更主要的是,可以有效引导金融机构降低实体经济部门融资成本,且不会引起流动性宽松。

值得注意的是,诸多业内人士强调,目前整体的货币政策稳健中性的基调未变,即使降准也绝不意味着货币宽松和“大水漫灌”的流动性投放。“在我国宏观经济企稳向好以及人民币升值的背景下,央行须加强与市场沟通,避免造成货币政策宽松的预期。” 温彬表示。

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