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人民币兑美元升破6.5 专家解疑:降准时机是否到来?

2017-09-09 08:26:43   中国经济网

央广网北京9月8日消息 据经济之声《天下财经》报道,昨天(7日),人民币兑美元中间价较前一交易日上调42个基点,报6.5269,迎来连续9个交易日调升,创2011年初以来最长连升。今年以来,人民币对美元累计升值幅度约为6%。那么,降准时机是否到来?普通老百姓有没有必要去换一点美元?中国民生银行首席研究员温彬为您答疑解惑。

疑问一:降准真的有必要吗?

不少业内人士认为,人民币企稳回升为货币政策的操作打开了空间,降低存款准备金率的同时,大幅压缩短期公开市场操作工具余额,可以达到“中性”降准的效果。那么降准真的有必要吗?

中国民生银行首席研究员温彬认为:“降准主要是因为基础货币的投放近年来在收缩。长期以来,我们的基础货币投放主要是靠外汇占款的投放增加,但是随着外汇储备从4万亿下降到3万亿,外汇占款的投放也从最高的27万多亿下降到了21万亿,基础货币在减少,这样就需要来对冲,有两个手段,一是通过降准的方式。我们已经看到,从21.5降到17;二是通过公开市场操作,比如央行先采取的逆回购。这两种方式目前的规模已经达到了6.8万亿的水平,基本上和外汇占款收缩的比例差不多。问题是,通过公开市场操作,导致整个金融体系的资金成本比较高,所以降准可以有效地降低金融市场资金成本的压力。”

而央行参事盛松成近日表示,目前中国经济还处于L型,L型会持续很长时间,没有到降准的周期。认为降准的宽松信号太大,与当前稳健中性的货币政策和金融去杠杆的总体基调不符,因此央行会选择政策信号没有那么强的货币市场工具,例如中期借贷便利MLF等,点对点增加基础货币供应。昨天,央行进行了一年期2980亿中期借贷便利操作,操作利率3.2%,这一操作也印证了盛松成央行不降准的观点。

疑问二:我们需要去换点美元么?

人民币持续升值让年初换美元的投资者懊悔不已。同样是换5万美元,年初需要34万多元,现在只需要32万多元,也就9个月工夫,年初换汇的人就亏了2万多元。如果把一家三口每人5万美元的额度都用完,15万美元就亏了6万元。

那么从目前来看,普通老百姓还有没有必要去换一点美元呢?温彬表示:“两方面的需要,一是刚性的支出,比如马上就要到国庆节了,你要到境外旅游、购物消费;以及学校开学,子女需要支付学费,这需要及时购汇。但还有一类就是作为投资,人民币的收益率目前高于美元资产的收益率。现在银行的理财产品大概都在4%以上,但是美元的理财,包括储蓄大概2%左右,所以大家可以再综合看看汇率的变化和收益率进行操作。”

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