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货币政策基调不变 降准或成选项

2017-09-11 07:12:38   中国经济网

展望 物价或平稳运行

虽然8月CPI和PPI数据同比涨幅均有扩大,但多位业内专家认为,未来通货膨胀将维持低位水平,物价不会持续大幅攀升。

申万宏源的研报预测,尽管8月CPI显著回升,但在农业供给侧改革的背景下,年内食品CPI涨幅均将处于低位;而生猪价格的上涨也难以持续,预计四季度会有所回落。且生活资料PPI仍然保持稳定,对CPI的传导有限。另一方面,环保限产仍将继续支撑PPI,经济和政策均不支持企业大幅扩张产能,周期行业的盈利有望延续。

连平预测,下半年CPI上升幅度较为有限。虽然天气原因导致食品价格上升,但同比涨幅仍然为负,依然为低通胀水平。随着天气影响因素的减弱,即便未来食品价格恢复性上升,涨幅也不会太大。而今年全年CPI平均涨幅仍将低于去年。

周景彤也认为,未来CPI涨幅不会太明显,全年应该在2%左右。但需要注意的是,由于食品价格尤其是禽蛋、鲜菜价格上涨较快,加之“猪周期”由下转上,以及前期PPI上涨对CPI带来一定的传导压力,未来CPI还有上升趋势。

光大证券首席经济学家徐高表示,因为上游价格如果涨得太多可能部分向CPI传导,但明显会对经济增长形成阻力。经济增长如果稳不住,CPI上涨的动能也不会太足。因此,CPI未来几个月的走势还会处于比较温和的状态。

工业领域价格方面,连平认为,PPI反弹可能是短期现象,未来涨幅仍会收窄。PPI走势受大宗商品价格影响较大,未来大宗商品价格难以大幅上升,不会进一步推升PPI。需求对工业产品价格拉动作用难以显著增强,受翘尾因素走弱影响,下半年PPI同比涨幅将低于上半年。

但也有专家对此持有不同意见。方正证券首席经济学家任泽平表示,“未来供求缺口将在很长一段时间维持,原因在于银行对‘两高一剩’行业限贷、环保督查、供给侧去产能。这意味着中上游工业品价格和企业盈利水平将在相当长一段时间保持高位。”

态势 降准或成政策选项

尽管8月物价涨幅有所扩大,但是业内人士表示,物价的波动对目前货币政策的约束性影响不大。而鉴于目前人民币汇率的走势和银行间市场流动性的情况,不少业内人士表示,目前,货币政策运用的空间有所扩大。

周景彤认为,由于短期物价涨幅扩大有限,不会从根本上改变宏观经济政策的方向和节奏,但可能在力度上会有小的调整。连平也表示,虽然CPI和PPI都有上升,但目前不存在明显通胀压力,物价波动对货币政策不会构成影响。

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