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物价短期波动不会影响货币政策

2017-09-10 06:26:38   中国经济网

9月9日,国家统计局发布了8月份全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)。数据显示,8月份,CPI环比上涨0.4%,同比上涨1.8%;PPI环比上涨0.9%,同比上涨6.3%。

专家表示,当前CPI同比涨幅升至年内高位,主要与季节性因素带来食品价格上涨有关;PPI同比涨幅扩大,与供需两端的变动密切相关。总的来看,物价水平符合预期,并不存在通胀压力,亦不会对货币政策构成影响。

鸡蛋和鲜菜价格上涨影响大

8月份,CPI同比上涨1.8%,涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点,处于年内高点,仅次于1月份2.5%的涨幅,但仍处于“1时代”。1月至8月平均,CPI同比上涨1.5%。

国家统计局城市司高级统计师绳国庆分析说,从同比看,食品价格下降0.2%,降幅收窄0.9个百分点,影响CPI下降约0.04个百分点。其中,猪肉价格下降13.4%,影响CPI下降0.39个百分点;鲜菜价格上涨9.7%,影响CPI上涨约0.22个百分点。非食品价格上涨2.3%,涨幅扩大0.3个百分点,影响CPI上涨约1.81个百分点。其中,医疗保健类价格上涨5.9%,居住类价格上涨2.7%,教育文化和娱乐价格上涨2.5%。

据测算,在8月份1.8%的同比涨幅中,去年价格变动的翘尾因素和新涨价因素均约为0.9个百分点。

8月份,CPI环比上涨0.4%,涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点,处于年内高点,仅次于1月份1.0%的涨幅。

绳国庆表示,从环比看,食品价格上涨1.2%,影响CPI上涨约0.24个百分点。其中,鸡蛋产量减少,价格上涨16.2%;高温多雨和强对流天气导致鲜菜储运成本增加,价格上涨8.5%;鸡肉和猪肉价格分别上涨3.0%和1.3%,上述四项合计影响CPI上涨约0.32个百分点。应季瓜果大量上市,鲜果价格下降4.2%;休渔期结束使水产品供应增加,水产品价格下降1.1%,两项合计影响CPI下降约0.09个百分点。非食品价格上涨0.2%,影响CPI上涨约0.18个百分点。其中,汽油和柴油价格分别上涨2.7%和2.9%,医疗服务价格上涨0.9%,居住类价格上涨0.4%,上述四项合计影响CPI上涨约0.18个百分点。

“季节性因素影响食品价格上涨,是带动8月CPI上升的主要原因。”交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智说,夏天全国性高温和强降雨天气影响了蔬菜等农产品的生产和供应,使得食用农产品价格出现了持续上涨。总的来看,物价上升符合预期,并不存在通胀压力。

PPI较上月扩大0.8个百分点

8月份,PPI同比上涨6.3%,涨幅在连续3个月保持稳定之后,比上月扩大0.8个百分点。

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