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8月CPI、PPI齐涨 解读:不存在明显通胀压力

2017-09-10 09:57:39   央广网

央广网北京9月10日消息(记者张棉棉 见习记者郭明)据中国之声《新闻纵横》报道,国家统计局昨天(9日)公布,8月居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨1.8%,涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点;工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)同比上涨6.3%,涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点。物价的持续上行是否意味着通胀压力卷土重来?货币政策又是否会出现变化?

在山东淄博一处农贸市场,摊主齐女士感叹,最近一个月,鸡蛋一天一个价,最高的时候一天能涨到五六毛钱,一路从7月初的每斤两块五涨到了现在的每斤四块五到五块左右。

不仅是山东,各地的蛋价都在快速上涨。国家统计局数据显示,8月CPI环比上涨0.4%,涨幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点。食品价格上涨了1.2%,其中,鸡蛋价格上涨16.2%。国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源分析,这主要是季节性因素在发挥作用,“天气太热鸡就不下蛋了,鸡蛋的供给就在减少,需求又在增加,所以鸡蛋价格的上涨影响了我们8月份的CPI。还有一个就是蔬菜,蔬菜也是这样,由于天气的原因导致蔬菜的生产运输都遇到一些影响。”

8月CPI中,非食品价格环比上涨0.2%,其中,汽油和柴油价格、医疗服务价格、居住类价格继续出现不同程度上涨。交通银行首席经济学家连平分析,8月份CPI环比、同比数据增幅都在扩大,同比上涨1.8%,涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点,创下自今年2月份以来的新高。物价的这种上升符合市场预期,未来CPI同比涨幅超过2%的可能性不大。

连平预测,“目前CPI虽然在1点多上下波动,这个波动短期来看,受到蔬菜等食品价格波动的影响,同时也受到翘尾因素逐渐回落的影响,所以未来几个月,随着翘尾因素的回落,以及天气可能会逐渐走向平稳,CPI应该也会保持一个比较平稳的态势,不会出现价格大幅上升的情况。”

不过,值得关注的是,8月包括猪肉在内的部分食品价格虽然仍在下降中,但是降幅在收窄,国研中心金融研究所副所长陈道富提醒:猪肉价格可能未来会面临持续上行的压力,猪粮比已经很低,未来有一定持续上行的压力。

8月PPI同比、环比涨幅也都在扩大。其中,同比涨幅在连续3个月保持稳定之后,8月涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点。环比来看,8月PPI环比上涨0.9%,涨幅比上月扩大0.7个百分点。生产资料价格上涨1.2%,其中钢材、有色金属等主要生产资料价格涨势突出。钢材贸易商高先生认为,从2015年钢材最低价格每方不到两千元到如今每方四千元,钢材价格正在合理回归。“最近一个月,八月份涨幅比较大,八月份涨了三百块钱,这两三年应该算个高价,现在这个涨势比较正常。”

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