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人民币对美元“十连升”市场降准呼声渐起

2017-09-09 07:21:44   中国经济网

人民币对美元“十连升”

市场降准呼声渐起

分析人士认为,央行可能更倾向于采取公开市场操作或MLF等再贷款方式,向市场提供流动性

■本报记者 傅苏颖

《证券日报》记者从中国外汇交易中心获悉,9月8日,人民币对美元汇率报6.5032,较上一个交易日上涨237个基点,连续十日调升,为2011年年初以来最长连涨。另外,在岸和离岸市场人民币汇率表现同样强劲,分别升破6.47关口和6.46关口,截至记者发稿前,在岸市场人民币汇率报6.4600,较上一个交易日上涨372个基点,离岸市场人民币汇率报6.4594,较上一个交易日上涨271个基点。

对此,评级机构东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,今年以来,人民币对美元汇价累计升值6.5%以上,联系到年初较为浓重的市场贬值预期,这一走势可以说出乎绝大多数市场人士预料。原因在于,美元指数持续大幅下滑、国内宏观经济回暖向好,以及人民币市场贬值预期逐步消散,共同促成了近期人民币的升值走势。

展望后市,王青认为,人民币汇价在年内或将强势运行。一是短期内美国相关政策的落地仍存较大不确定性,债务上限问题亟待解决,美元指数缺乏趋势性上行动能;二是诸多先行指标显示,下半年国内宏观经济延续回暖态势,支撑人民币的基本面因素进一步巩固;三是“逆周期因子”的引入基本封杀了短期内人民币大幅回调的空间。

苏宁金融研究院宏观经济研究中心主任、高级研究员黄志龙昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,人民币汇率连续上涨的关键因素是美元指数的屡创新低,在加入逆周期因子之后,人民币汇率指数保持相对平稳,克服了此前美元贬值时人民币对美元却保持稳定、人民币汇率指数持续下行的内在缺陷。短期内,人民币对美元汇率还将保持稳中有升的态势。

那么,近期汇率的上涨对相关行业带来怎样的影响?

对此,王青认为,近期人民币汇价上升对外贸企业影响最为直接。人民币升值将提高我国出口产品价格,压低进口商品价格,这在一定程度上解释了伴随7月份、8月份两个月人民币加速升值,我国出口增速连续下调,而进口依然保持两位数以上增长的情况。

另外,近期,伴随着人民币的稳步升值,市场上再度出现降准的呼声。有业内人士提出了“中性”降准的说法,即在全面降低存款准备金率的同时,大幅压缩短期公开市场操作工具余额,通过公开市场操作净回笼操作配合降准,能保证流动性总量基本不增加的前提下修复结构性失衡问题。

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