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“新周期”:新,不在周期而在结构

2017-09-24 07:26:51   中国经济网

第三,“新”的因素更多体现在结构上,产业结构和消费结构升级对经济增长的贡献度增加。从产业结构来看,中国当前在一定程度上积极顺应了当前的全球新技术革命浪潮,结构升级表现充分。今年二季度,战略性新兴产业增速达10.8%,工业机器人增速甚至达到了52.3%,高技术行业增长13.1%,集成电路增长23.8%,高技术制造业和高技术服务业增速也都达到了20%以上。从消费结构来看,服务型消费增速明显快于商品型消费。今年上半年食品增长5.6%、衣着增长2.4%、日用品增长6.5%,但教育文化娱乐产业增速高达10%、医疗保健达11.9%、交通通讯达9.6%,同时SUV销量增长19.7%,新能源汽车也增长迅速。可以看到,消费结构升级明显,服务型消费比重越来越大。

经济“周期性”逐步减弱

从当前的中国经济现状,去讨论“新周期”并无太大现实意义。

一方面原因在于,当前的中国经济处于减速换挡期,是不争的事实。从这点出发,中国的经济增速仍处于不断的下行过程当中,但为了防止过快、过大的经济下滑,带来的社会不稳定等问题,政府在通过货币、财政等政策来对冲、延缓经济下滑的同时,逐步进行结构性调整来鼓励创新、发展新经济、提高效率。在趋势性下降的过程中,由于政策力度的大小不同、以及海外经济形势的不同,可能阶段性出现经济超预期上行的过程。将这种趋势性下降过程中的短期上行,定义为“新周期”显然是不合适的。而且,当前经济的“周期性”是在逐步减弱的。全要素生产率的下降拉低了中国的潜在经济增速,在经济增速下行压力较大的时候,通过货币、财政手段刺激经济企稳;在稳增长压力较小时,则通过收紧货币来调整经济结构,降低经济杠杆。在这样的环境下,经济的“周期性”明显较弱。

另一方面原因是过多地关注“周期”可能会忽视“结构”。从总量的角度看,整体经济呈现出一定的“弱周期”特性,经济增速的变化较小,整体经济可能处于低增长、低利率和低通胀的环境中。在这种环境中,需要侧重对“结构性”变化的研究。在结构调整阶段,经常会发生数据的冲突和背离,比如,“新经济”包含的计算机通信、医药制造等行业的增速上升,而代表传统周期的采矿业却加速下滑;服务型消费增速明显快于商品型消费等。在“周期性”趋弱的大背景下,更多关注结构性调整带来的投资机会,或许才是今后一段时间需要重点进行研究的地方。

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