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短期行情将进入观望期
2017-09-22 07:22:04 中国经济网
■情绪监测
■广州万隆
21日大盘指数高位震荡休整,主要受漂亮50相关个股支撑。而权重周期,中小创等方面的个股,则出现震荡调整行情。预计行情仍将会呈现高位震荡,结构性机会与结构性风险释放的运行格局。
好股道决策快线情绪指数目前读数值为30,处于低位区。结合情绪指数已经从8月28日高位回落,并且近期股指以区间震荡为主的这种情况分析,这意味着目前市场信心已经相对缺乏。从反身性的角度来看,当市场信心不足的情况下,也就意味着股指已经处于阶段性非理性下跌状态(风险释放尾声)。情绪指数回落至低位区时,投资者可以逐步关注即将到来的布局机会。
舆情观点方面来看,对中期行情震荡慢牛的看法没有太大的改变。而短期行情方面,则开始出现多空分歧看法。盘面方面来看,近两个交易日以来权重周期股、漂亮50类个股均有技术反抽的运行特征,但反抽的空间及持续性并不强。从技术心理分析的角度来看,说明在新的预期差并未出现之前,行情很难有进一步向上突破的理由。因此,预计短期行情大概仍将会以高位震荡为主,建议投资者关注结构性机会。
我们在近期的观点中多次强调,目前大盘除了面临增量逻辑对大盘指数推动之外,另一方面也面临上方3400-3500点区间套牢盘的有待消化。因此,在资金面、情绪面等因素的制约下,在经济基本面韧性、改革推动等因素支撑下,预计短期行情将进入观望期。而变盘时间窗口需要等待到十九大召开时释放的政策信号是否超预期。
整体上来看,权重周期股高位反复,短期难有持续性的赚钱效应。另一方面,在权重股进入休整期之后,题材股先是从炒作区块链、人工智能、新能源汽车、芯片集成电路,短期的角度来看,成长题材在经过一轮估值修复行情之后,结构性低估的机会亦逐步减少。因此,建议投资者耐心等待休整消化浮筹之后的二次进场机会。
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