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美联储宣布“缩表”,对全球影响有限

2017-09-22 07:37:58   新华网

连平还补充道,如今,美国经济运行趋于平稳,但资产负债表却高悬在4.5万亿美元,这是不正常的。而且,仅靠加息手段抑制市场流动性过剩效果毕竟有限,必须用“缩表”加持,两者互相协调和支持。这些也是美联储启动“缩表”计划的考量所在。

本次货币政策会议还决定保持联邦基金利率不变,但美联储会后公布的利率预期点阵图显示,今年年底前预计还将加息一次,明年再加息3次,2019年加息2次,2020年将加息1次。“这表明美联储未来的货币政策是加息和‘缩表’搭配进行,预示着货币政策的调整将朝收紧方向走。”连平说。

  “缩表”会冲击全球市场吗?

从2015年首次加息到之后陆续加息3次,再到结束购买债券计划,直至如今开启“缩表”进程,耶伦上台以来的一系列动作都意味着货币宽松时代即将落幕。“缩表”的“靴子”落下后,是否会给全球经济和市场带来冲击?

连平表示,即使“缩表”和加息双管齐下,对美国经济乃至世界经济并不具有实际影响。因为加息走走停停,谨小慎微,“缩表”也是数量有限,且会根据美国经济运行状况相应调整,因此,“缩表”更多的意义不是对实体经济的影响,而是释放货币政策趋于收紧的信号。

分析人士还认为,“缩表”对汇率和资本流动可能会产生一定影响。陈凤英说,虽然“缩表”对美元指数的影响小于升息,但“缩表”带来的直接市场预期是,未来美元资产会更值钱。连平也表示,“缩表”将减少市场上货币的投放量,美元将呈阶段性走强的态势。相对而言,人民币可能会承受阶段性贬值的压力,因为美元与人民币是负相关关系。

但是,美元汇率的强弱并不仅取决于加息或“缩表”,还要视特朗普政府经济政策而定。特朗普政府希望提振制造业、推动出口,同时还在忙着出台税改法案,特朗普也声明不希望看到美元走强,所以不会坐视美元汇率持续上扬。(记者 廖勤)

至于人民币汇率走势,连平指出,更重要的决定因素还是中国自身情况:经济发展是否平稳、国际收支是否平衡。从近两年走势看,人民币汇率基本处于“双向波动”、阶段性调整的态势。从资本流动来看,“缩表”启动之后,美国金融市场会被美元阶段性走强所带动,外界对美国金融市场的投资需求会增长,这也会推动中国资本流出,涌向美国金融市场“池子”。

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