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“缩表”对市场冲击有限 人民币将延续双向波动走势

2017-09-22 07:07:04   中国经济网

■本报见习记者 孟 珂

日前,美联储在议息会议后宣布,维持基准利率不变,同时于10月正式启动资产负债表缩减计划(以下简称“缩表”):起步为每月最多缩减100亿美元,在12个月内,每3个月多缩减100亿美元,直到最终达到每月最多缩减500亿美元。

对此,民生加银资产管理公司首席宏观分析师邓黎阳9月21日在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,美联储“缩表”总体会令人民币贬值压力増加。美联储表达了年内加息的预期,并且明确10月份“缩表”。由此看来,加息“缩表”预期增强,政府债务上限危机解除,风险下行,所以人民币兑美元汇率,由于前期超跌,目前有反弹的需求。

而在东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青看来,美联储渐进式“缩表”降低对市场冲击,对美元的提振效果有限,短期内人民币兑美元汇率价格或将保持强势。

王青进一步指出,从美联储负债端结构来看,当前超额准备金处于2.3万亿美元的历史高位。按照“缩表”进度,未来一年将最多缩减3000亿美元。这一缩减规模不会造成超额准备金短缺,引起货币市场资金利率大幅上升的可能性不大。因此,与加息直接提高短期利率不同,“缩表”启动后美国短期利率仍会维持在1.0%至1.25%的美联储政策目标区间之内,难以直接推高美元。总体来看,人民币贬值压力取决于中国国内经济增长动力与国际金融市场紧缩节奏的博弈。伴随国内宏观经济持续回稳向好,市场对人民币资产的回报预期趋于改善,人民币汇率价格在年内或仍将强势运行。由此,美联储“缩表”在难以提振美元的同时,亦不会对人民币形成明显的外部压力。

民生银行首席研究员温彬昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,自从美联储决议公布以后,美元指数的确出现小幅反弹。但总体来说,对于整个金融市场的波动性相对有限。

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