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美联储缩表 我国有底气保持货币政策独立性

2017-09-22 07:32:22   中国经济网

每经记者 张喜威 每经编辑 贾运可

量化宽松近十年之后,缩表靴子终于落地,美联储的货币政策迎来历史性一刻。

北京时间9月21日凌晨,美联储公布9月利率决议,维持基准利率在1%~1.25%不变,并宣布将在今年10月起启动渐进式缩表。此外,美联储最新的点阵图显示,今年还将有一次加息,这就意味着美国今年12月可能再度加息。《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,在美联储利率决议发布后,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具显示,美联储12月加息25个基点至1.25%~1.5%区间的概率已升至70.5%,决议发布前为50.9%。

分析人士表示,由于此前市场已经对美联储缩表有了较为充分的预期,且缩表计划未来仍面临不确定性,所以这一点并未给市场带来明显冲击。但从市场表现可以看出,大家对美联储年内可能再度加息的预期和准备显然不够充分。

Wind数据显示,美联储政策声明发布后,美元指数迅速从低位拉升近130点至92.70,刷新9月6日以来新高;非美元货币、黄金、白银等则一度迅速跳水。

缩表执行面临不确定性

自2008年11月开始,美联储先后实施了三轮量化宽松政策(QE),使得美联储的资产负债表迅速膨胀。Wind数据显示,截至2017年8月9日,美联储总资产规模达到4.5万亿美元,相比QE之前的9000亿美元,膨胀了4倍。此外,美联储资产规模占美国GDP的比重也由QE前的6%一路上涨至2015年的25%,之后小幅下降。截至今年二季度,美联储的资产规模占美国GDP的比重仍保持在23%。

2017年9月21日,美联储正式宣布将于10月启动缩表。美联储表示,缩表将以减少到期本金再投资的方式进行,起初每月缩减60亿美元国债、40亿美元抵押支持债券(MBS)。该规模上限每三个月上调一次,直到每月缩减300亿美元国债、200亿美元抵押支持债券。

东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青表示,由于全球市场对美联储缩表已有充分准备和提前调整,此次“政策宣示”不会对相对脆弱的新兴市场国家带来强烈冲击,再度引发“金融事故”的概率很低。

中金所研究院首席经济学家赵庆明认为,美联储货币政策只是影响美元走势、国际资本流动的因素之一。我国较为充足的外汇储备和有效的资本账户管理可较好抵御外部冲击,也是保持货币政策独立性的“底气”。

“根据美联储的预测,缩表将持续到2021年,美联储的资产负债规模将缩减至3万亿美元左右。缩表的主要对象将是约1.8万亿美元,占比39%的MBS。但当前不会主动出售MBS,而是通过停止到期再投资的方式被动收缩。”交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,这对市场的影响相对有限。但缩表所传递出的美元流动性减少信号意义不容忽视。

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