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美联储缩表不过是“另一只靴子落地”

2017-09-22 07:07:05   中国经济网

主持人苏诗钰:9月20日,美联储正式宣布,将从今年10月份开始缩减总额高达4.5万亿美元的资产负债表(“缩表”),以逐步收紧货币政策,实现货币政策正常化。本报今日就美联储“缩表”对A股市场、人民币、黄金价格的影响做详细解读。

专家认为,美联储已与市场充分沟通,无论是政策面还是资金面,不会有直接影响

■本报见习记者 孟 珂

9月21日凌晨,美联储决议如期而至,其将从今年10月份开始缩减总额高达4.5万亿美元的资产负债表(“缩表”),以逐步收紧货币政策,实现货币政策正常化。

在不少分析人士看来,“缩表”只是“另一只靴子落地”,不会给全球市场包括A股市场带来重大影响。其中,东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,在本次启动“缩表”之前,美联储已与市场充分沟通:3月份美联储官员已经开始讨论,缩减其金融危机以来持续扩张的资产负债表;6月份美联储公布了未来“缩表”的具体路径。由此,全球市场对美联储“缩表”已有充分准备和提前调整,“政策宣示效应”不会对相对脆弱的新兴市场国家带来强烈冲击,再度引发“金融事故”的概率很低。

谈及“缩表”对A股市场的影响,中国国际经济交流中心信息部部长王军昨日告诉《证券日报》记者,短期来看不会有过于直接的影响,无论是政策面还是资金面,只是会在情绪面产生一些扰动。但从中长期来看,“缩表”及其加息代表着美国货币政策逐步回归常态和正常化,对全球意味着最大的一个放水的水龙头被逐步拧紧。对全球跨境资本流动会产生重要影响,对我国货币政策取向也会产生一定的冲击,释放大量货币已无可能。

“好在我们已经未雨绸缪,主动调整货币供应量的增速,例如:去杠杆、减债务、推改革,这些都是要对冲这种来自国外的风险。”王军强调。

一位不愿透露姓名的分析师昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,如果美国的货币政策比较紧,可能会导致我国的货币政策也比较紧,由于汇率的压力,我国被动收紧货币的话,可能对经济的需求会造成压制,上市公司的EPS就会下降,从而导致A股下跌。但是目前,外储、汇率已经不是主要矛盾,并且汇率也没有风险,所以对我国的货币政策产生不了太大的影响,继而对A股市场也造成不了太大影响。

该人士还指出,“在美联储加息时,如果中国基准利率往上跟随,进行被动加息,或者把银行市场的利率推高,再或者国债包括风险利率也上行的话,对A股市场来说,是一个估值体系的重塑,因为,A股的定价模型就是无风险利率,如果无风险利率升高,股价就会下跌。”

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