新闻 > 经济
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China

周期品种盈利兑现 IC延续强势

2017-09-12 09:37:25   中国经济网

银行间市场资金面整体处于偏紧局面

进入到9月以来,和实体经济预期更为密切的大宗工业品期货价格,均出现见顶回落走势。虽然从已经公布的8月PMI、进出口数据看,典型意义的经济拐点仍未出现。基于“买预期卖事实”的考量,在金九银十旺季到来之际,经济已进入到下半年最佳表现期。此时,针对强周期品种,投资者应该采取盈利兑现、高位止盈的操作。

对于年内周期品在调整后能否再次出现反弹,我们认为需要关注市场预期的变化。近期投资者对经济走势的看法,或将因为周期资源品价格回调、后期经济淡季来临而转为悲观。若经济数据继续向市场传递出较强的复苏韧性,即悲观预期遭受乐观数据“冲击”,新的预期差出现将促使指数出现反弹。

上周五,沪深两大交易所公布了被称为史上最严的股权质押新规。虽然新规对于上市公司影响有限,但结合近期央行、证监会等部门出台的针对ICO、货币基金等多重政策来看,监管政策无疑重新进入到较密集的发布期。自8月开始,银行间市场资金面整体处于偏紧局面,部分品种资金价格高于6月。央行在公开市场持续偏紧的态度也是原因之一。市场原本处于维稳期,但近期政策出台的频率超出投资者预期。在沪指成功站上3300点整数大关之际,监管政策的落地将抑制市场风险偏好,一定程度上也有利于避免股市的大涨大跌。

IC强势逻辑已变

相对而言,我们更看好中证500期指。从创业板在近期持续创新高的表现来看,也的确有风格向小市值品种切换的迹象。对于当前中小创品种的表现,我们认为是追逐龙马品种的资金开始向中盘蓝筹、创蓝筹外溢。背后投资的核心逻辑仍在于寻找竞争优势边际提升的公司。这与2014、2015年中小创毫无基本面支撑的题材、概念炒作有本质不同。上周末,股票质押新规出台,旨在严防资金脱实向虚。未来依靠讲故事炒作而套现的大股东操作难度加大,最终公司经营者将关注点专注于提升公司经营能力上来。从大方向上看,监管政策旨在促使资金脱虚向实,追寻业绩与价值。

图为各现货指数走势对比

整体上,近期包括金融、资源在内的强周期品整体处于盈利预期兑现期,故大市值权重占比较高的上证50整体表现机会有限。投资者需要关注经济预期因周期品调整转弱后,实际经济数据是否能再次带来超预期因素。就三品种相对走势来看,受益于价值投资风格外溢,超跌错杀的中小创蓝筹有望反弹,IC整体将延续强势。

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170912/31367266.html
Server: cms-8-251
Date: 2024/12/27 02:43:24

Powered by China
China