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周期品种盈利兑现 IC延续强势
2017-09-12 09:37:25 中国经济网
银行间市场资金面整体处于偏紧局面
进入到9月以来,和实体经济预期更为密切的大宗工业品期货价格,均出现见顶回落走势。虽然从已经公布的8月PMI、进出口数据看,典型意义的经济拐点仍未出现。基于“买预期卖事实”的考量,在金九银十旺季到来之际,经济已进入到下半年最佳表现期。此时,针对强周期品种,投资者应该采取盈利兑现、高位止盈的操作。
对于年内周期品在调整后能否再次出现反弹,我们认为需要关注市场预期的变化。近期投资者对经济走势的看法,或将因为周期资源品价格回调、后期经济淡季来临而转为悲观。若经济数据继续向市场传递出较强的复苏韧性,即悲观预期遭受乐观数据“冲击”,新的预期差出现将促使指数出现反弹。
上周五,沪深两大交易所公布了被称为史上最严的股权质押新规。虽然新规对于上市公司影响有限,但结合近期央行、证监会等部门出台的针对ICO、货币基金等多重政策来看,监管政策无疑重新进入到较密集的发布期。自8月开始,银行间市场资金面整体处于偏紧局面,部分品种资金价格高于6月。央行在公开市场持续偏紧的态度也是原因之一。市场原本处于维稳期,但近期政策出台的频率超出投资者预期。在沪指成功站上3300点整数大关之际,监管政策的落地将抑制市场风险偏好,一定程度上也有利于避免股市的大涨大跌。
IC强势逻辑已变
相对而言,我们更看好中证500期指。从创业板在近期持续创新高的表现来看,也的确有风格向小市值品种切换的迹象。对于当前中小创品种的表现,我们认为是追逐龙马品种的资金开始向中盘蓝筹、创蓝筹外溢。背后投资的核心逻辑仍在于寻找竞争优势边际提升的公司。这与2014、2015年中小创毫无基本面支撑的题材、概念炒作有本质不同。上周末,股票质押新规出台,旨在严防资金脱实向虚。未来依靠讲故事炒作而套现的大股东操作难度加大,最终公司经营者将关注点专注于提升公司经营能力上来。从大方向上看,监管政策旨在促使资金脱虚向实,追寻业绩与价值。
图为各现货指数走势对比
整体上,近期包括金融、资源在内的强周期品整体处于盈利预期兑现期,故大市值权重占比较高的上证50整体表现机会有限。投资者需要关注经济预期因周期品调整转弱后,实际经济数据是否能再次带来超预期因素。就三品种相对走势来看,受益于价值投资风格外溢,超跌错杀的中小创蓝筹有望反弹,IC整体将延续强势。
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