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整体强势 防范短期风险

2017-09-11 08:22:39   中国经济网

对于后期A股,结合各方面因素分析认为沪深市场整体强势格局仍有望延续,但需防范短期调整风险。

对于后期A股,结合各方面因素分析认为沪深市场整体强势格局仍有望延续,但需防范短期调整风险。

对后期沪深市场,整体仍有望延续强势格局。一方面从宏观层面看,相对稳定的国内环境仍将对A股运行形成支撑。8月份国内制造业PMI反弹至51.7%,体现了当前国内经济较强的韧性,也表明国内经济改善趋势仍在延续,在实体经济运行持续好于预期的情况下,沪深股票市场也将因此受到支撑。从资金市场情况看,在央行“削峰填谷”的调控下,当前国内货币市场整体保持稳定,上周央行时隔两个月后重启28天逆回购亦较为明显地体现了维稳资金面的意图,相对稳定的资金市场同样利于后期A股运行。另一方面,国内一系列积极信号的出现同样将提振投资者信心,有助于资金风险偏好的提升。典型的如人民币汇率的持续走强显示各方对人民币资产的认可,外汇储备规模连续七个月上升表明跨境资金流动进一步改善,而国企改革的快速推进则预示着国内政策红利持续释放。

在市场整体仍有望维持强势的情况下,短期市场调整的压力更多缘于技术面以及政策面因素。从技术面的角度看,在经过连续的上涨后伴随获利盘的增多以及上方压力的增大,两市技术调整需求逐步增加,尤其在缺乏明显增量资金入场的情况下,沪深市场的上行将不会一帆风顺;从政策面因素看,8日沪深交易所修订股票质押式回购业务规则并发布征求意见稿,对股票质押业务作出更为严格的限制,此举预计将对质押业务产生明显影响,而其释放出的去杠杆信号料也将对短期A股形成一定的冲击。除了以上两方面因素外,商品市场的调整同样将对沪深两市运行形成负面影响,上周后期国内期货市场商品价格经历了一轮较为明显的调整,基本金属下跌幅度明显。前期A股部分周期板块的上涨建立在产品涨价的基础之上,当前随着商品价格的回落,此类板块个股预计也将承压,沪深两市运行同样将因此面临压力。

综合分析,A股整体强势格局仍有望延续,相对稳定的宏观环境以及一系列积极信号的出现均利于后期两市运行,但短期而言,伴随连续上涨后技术调整压力增大、管理层股票质押业务新规以及商品期货价格的下跌,沪深市场因此料将面临一定下行压力,对其带来的调整风险,投资者需保持必要的谨慎心理。

(原标题:整体强势 防范短期风险)

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