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出口增速连续两月回落 态势或将延续

2017-09-11 07:12:40   中国经济网

海关总署日前发布进出口数据显示,今年前8个月,我国货物贸易进出口总值17.83万亿元人民币,比去年同期(下同)增长17.1%。其中,出口9.85万亿元,增长13%;进口7.98万亿元,增长22.5%;贸易顺差1.87万亿元,收窄15.1%。

值得关注的是,单月出口增速已经连续两个月回落。据海关统计,8月份,我国进出口总值2.41万亿元,增长10.1%。其中,出口1.35万亿元,增速从上月的11.3%进一步回落至6.9%;进口1.06万亿元,增长14.4%;贸易顺差2865亿元,收窄14%。

接受《经济参考报》记者采访的业内专家指出,外需有所放缓、人民币汇率升值以及去年同期高基数等原因致8月出口增速回落,未来出口增速下滑态势可能仍将持续,不过全年来看,外贸进出口表现将好于去年。

商务部研究院国际市场研究部副主任白明表示,8月出口下滑的一个重要原因是人民币持续升值,近两个月人民币对美元的汇率出现较大幅度的上涨,这可能对出口带来了不利影响。此外,基数抬高也是外贸增速回落的一个重要原因。

交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智指出,今年上半年新兴经济体复苏带动中国出口,前几个月对金砖国家出口增速都在两位数。由于过去几年对新兴经济体的出口持续低迷,今年上半年呈恢复性增长态势,目前恢复性增长势头已到尾声,8月出口增速明显回落。

此外,汇率升值对出口的影响可能逐渐有所显现。汇率波动对出口的影响有滞后效应,下半年或是四季度后出口增速可能会受到影响。近期人民币升值速度明显加快,幅度也不小;如果人民币汇率继续较大幅度升值,对明年出口增长的影响可能较为明显。

白明认为,目前来看,人民币升值的趋势在9月份更加明显,预计在未来几个月内,将会对外贸带来更大的影响,尤其是劳动密集型产业承压会更加明显。

刘学智也表示,8月美国启动针对我国的301调查,贸易摩擦加重对双边贸易发展带来影响。因此,预计下半年出口增速将低于上半年,但全年出口形势显著好于过去两年,出口对经济有着正向带动。进口方面,他指出,未来进口增速可能降至个位数。未来大宗商品价格继续大幅上涨的可能性不大,由于去年下半年大宗商品价格逐渐上升,因而今年同期价格同比涨幅将会缩小,对进口增速的抬升作用减弱。

评级机构东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青认为,近期全球经济复苏动能较强,外部需求畅旺,支撑我国出口贸易继续保持较快增速。预计主要出口市场基本面整体改善将继续支撑我国出口贸易增长,加之去年9月出口形势下滑提供了较低的基数,9月出口增速或将阶段性反弹。不过,由于需求复苏的边际效用将持续减弱,且近期人民币汇率升值对出口不利,预计反弹幅度有限。

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