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货币政策基调不变 降准或成选项

2017-09-11 07:12:38   中国经济网

根据国家统计局最新公布的数据,8月份,全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)数据同比涨幅均有扩大。

业内人士表示,尽管8月物价涨幅扩大,但未来通胀仍将维持低位水平,物价不会持续大幅攀升,物价波动对货币政策也不会构成较大影响。货币政策仍将保持稳健中性基调。不过,最近一段时间人民币汇率走势的变化为货币政策工具选择提供了更大空间,降准成为可能的政策选项。

双升 物价涨幅扩大

统计局数据显示,8月份,CPI环比上涨0.4%,同比上涨1.8%;PPI环比上涨0.9%,同比上涨6.3%。

国家统计局城市司高级统计师绳国庆表示,CPI环比涨幅扩大主要受鸡蛋和鲜菜价格上涨较多影响。其中,鸡蛋产量减少,价格上涨16.2%;高温多雨和强对流天气导致鲜菜储运成本增加,价格上涨8.5%;鸡肉和猪肉价格分别上涨3.0%和1.3%,上述四项合计影响CPI上涨约0.32个百分点。而PPI方面,同比涨幅在连续3个月保持稳定之后,比上月扩大0.8个百分点。在主要行业中,涨幅扩大的有黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业,上涨29.1%;石油加工业,上涨16.8%;有色金属冶炼和压延加工业,上涨16.3%;石油和天然气开采业,上涨15.7%。

交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,季节性因素影响食品价格上涨,是带动8月CPI上升的主要原因。夏天全国性高温和强降雨天气影响了蔬菜等农产品的生产和供应,使得食用农产品价格出现了持续上涨。鲜菜、鸡蛋等农产品价格环比、同比涨幅都显著扩大。

“PPI同比涨幅在连续3个月平稳运行之后反弹回升至6.3%,主要是近期黑色金属和有色金属类产品价格大幅上升所致。”连平表示,近期钢材价格大幅上涨有多方面原因,一方面基建和部分制造业复苏拉动需求,另一方面去产能和环保限产带来供给收缩,也不排除大量资金流入初级产品市场的可能。PPI上升有助于工业企业盈利改善。工业产品价格涨幅扩大可能会继续促进企业利润增长,促进生产和投资行为。

中国银行国际金融研究所研究员周景彤表示,PPI涨幅走高从结构来看,主要是由生产资料价格上涨引起的,而在生产资料当中,采掘业上涨幅度最大,涨幅比上月扩大了2.4个百分点,同期原材料工业扩大了1.7个百分点,加工工业扩大了0.6个百分点。PPI同比环比涨幅由此前的高位回落转为重拾加快,意味着在投资较快增长和去产能背景下,能源原材料价格涨幅的再次扩大,这将对下一步CPI涨幅带来更大压力。

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