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媒体:美舰闯南沙12海里 特朗普南海政策需警惕

2017-05-26 00:55:50   侠客岛

同时,东南亚国家也逐渐对美国的这种色厉内荏了然于胸,不仅不响应美国,反而加快了与中国进行谈判磋商的进程,东盟绝大部分国家在南海的立场和政策,基本上回到了09年以前。

所以,如果非得要说效果,激起中国政府和民众的反感可能要算一条。

策略

好酒猎枪都有。国防部今天证实,中国海军“柳州”号、“泸州”号两艘导弹护卫舰,对美舰进行了识别查证、警告驱离,把美方行动定性为“炫耀武力、推动地区军事化、且极易引发海空意外事件的行径”。

在岛叔看来,如果未来时不时再来这么一出,中方应该有如下策略。

首先,要重视美国国内政治和军政关系的复杂性,合作与斗争的手段要兼备,要有层次。

不可否认,海湖庄园会晤后,两国总体关系发展趋势良好。可是,在南海问题上,美国国内暗流涌动,一大票人和机构正在抓住一切机会,极力阻止南海形势缓和。即便特朗普再有合作诚意,也不可能完全忽视这种暗流,特别是不可能忽视军方意见。况且,特朗普本人多少也有点想将南海问题作为一张牌。

因此,宜将中美总体关系的稳定与南海的斗争分开,将朝核问题上的合作与南海的博弈分开,强化在南海与美国斗争的准备与手段,更千万不要有“搞定了特朗普就搞定了美国”的线性思维。

其次,有必要向特朗普政府表明立场。目前,特朗普的南海政策还未定型,尚在形成之中,中国的表现,对该政策的发展有很重要的影响。

说到底,美国不能指望中国能一方面与其在经贸、朝核等问题上紧密合作,另一方面能在南海无限制忍受其羞辱。我们可以积极以中美总体关系、应对朝核等议题进行议题联系,对美国施压。总之,不能什么都不做。

准备

最后,也是最重要的是,要视情加快在南沙岛礁的部署和布防。南沙的机场、码头、房屋等基础设施早已建设完毕,而据岛叔观察,在武器装备上岛问题上,中方一直保持着相当的克制。

但树欲静而风不止,美国海军不会任由南海的局势走向稳定。美国战略界甚至有观点认为,“要做就要做得更狠一些,当前的对抗烈度依然太低,不足以传递明确信息,也不足以测试彼此的政策底线”。

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