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媒体:美舰闯南沙12海里 特朗普南海政策需警惕

2017-05-26 00:55:50   侠客岛

而鼓吹“明天就准备在南海开战”的美军太总部司令哈里斯,则多次表示,“我认为我们不久就会在南海采取航行自由行动”。

所以,在南海问题上,美国国内实际上存在了两条路线:一条是特朗普代表的务实路线,另一条是传统精英所支持的激进务虚路线。

用意

本来,特朗普一向特立独行乾纲独断,并不一定会在乎精英们的呼声。不过,近期,特总统似乎惹上了大麻烦——“通俄门”事件持续发酵,已有议员提议对其进行弹劾,他遭遇着执政以来的最大危机。

因此,白宫突然批准美军在南海的“航行自由行动”,恐怕与特朗普最近的境况不无关系。虽然这样的普通行动当然谈不上转移视线,但多少能给国内南海的强硬派有所回应和交代。

白宫开了绿灯,但怎么搞,在什么时间搞?美国军方和太总部却是有较大的自由度和发言权。这是因为,舰船在海上的行动有太多的不确定性,此前的申请方案只能是一个相对模糊的提议。岛叔推测,具体的行动时机,军方和太总部应有一定的裁量权。

为达到最大的政治和宣传效果,美军近几次在南海的行动时机,都有意选在中国召开重大会议或有重大事件发生的时期及前后。此次也不例外——近期,中国与东盟国家达成了“南海行为准则”的框架方案,并与菲律宾启动了首次中菲南海问题双边磋商机制,南海局势持续降温,美国戏份越来越少;5月24日,中国最高领导人视察海军机关。

以美国军方的调性,不可能漏掉这些重大事件。此时在南海搞动作,显然有与中国海军叫板的味道。

效果

自在南海进行“航行自由行动”以来,美国政府和军方就宣称,要给中国在南海“传递明确信息,释放强硬信号”。但事实上,美国所传递的信息是模糊的——在声称不承认的中方海域12海里内进行所谓“无害通过”,不是等于间接承认中国拥有岛礁的主权和12海里领海?

因此,所谓的表面强硬,实际上是软弱的。本来想试图给中方划定一条“红线”,给外界的感觉却是一条“粉线”。这种略显柔和的行动,既无助于稳定中美关系,同时也不太可能达到测试中方底线的目的。

奥巴马政府时期,美国还试图拉拢菲律宾、日本等盟国在南海开展联合行动;现在,杜特尔特已明确拒绝,日本则心有余而力不足。迄今为止,“航行自由行动”依然是“曲高和寡”,示范的效果几乎没有。

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