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特朗普是“顺访”中东,这点不能搞错

2017-05-23 13:49:53   环球时报

特朗普总统首次出访落脚在沙特阿拉伯,轻松签下1100亿美元的超级军火大单。22日他又访问以色列,让自己的中东之行更加圆满。

人们之前把特朗普首访的国家猜了个遍,沙特是谁都没想到的“黑马”。因为特朗普之前说过那么多被认为是“得罪穆斯林”的话,不看好美国与伊斯兰世界的关系一时间相当流行。

然而特朗普又一次让世界大跌眼镜,这是他做事风格的又一典型表现。很多人在分析特朗普选择中东和沙特的战略用意,但要小心别让这种分析过度化了。如果首次出访像以往的美国总统那样去了加拿大或者墨西哥,那就不是特朗普了。沙特被选中,至少有部分原因是它离G7的开会地点、意大利的西西里岛比较靠近。更重要的是,那里有1100亿美元等着这位新任美国总统。

特朗普显然还没有成型的中东战略,对他来说,美国过去的中东战略并不成功,他有可能并不喜欢没完没了谈“战略”,而更愿意遵循问题导向或者成果导向行事。这次去中东,他重新巩固了华盛顿与沙特的同盟,实现了其与伊斯兰世界的一次重要沟通,还再次突出了美国与以色列的特殊关系。这些都是他当下最容易做而且确保能够得分的。

本来就是“顺访”,但现在搞得惊天动地,而且一举巩固了奥巴马时松懈了的美沙和美以同盟,他撬动事情的本领至少在这两天显得比奥巴马更加高明,更能一气呵成。

中东有一些传统及重大的问题,特朗普这次访问中能绕开它们的就绕开了,绕不开的就采取了拉一拨打一拨的最简单办法。他对伊朗和叙利亚的态度非常严厉,但他至今没有废除伊朗核协议。他曾宣称要把美国使馆从特拉维夫迁到耶路撒冷,等于在巴以冲突中完全站到以色列一边,但他直到北京时间昨天晚上没有重复这一承诺。

奥巴马政府的总姿态是要从中东往外抽身,特朗普首次外访先去中东,给人以美国要“重返中东”的强烈印象。然而这种印象未必是真实的,特朗普对解决中东问题的耐心决不会高于奥巴马,他更可能去中东“捞一把就走”,很难相信他会向中东做出高于奥巴马时期的战略资源投入。

冷战时期美国重视中东首先是为了那里的石油,如今美国对中东石油的依赖大大下降,不让中东成为恐怖主义的源头以及地缘政治考虑逐渐上升为美重视中东的首要原因。确保从中东稳定地获利,和让中东的乱子别惹上美国,华盛顿会认为需要投入不同的成本,而且他们大概倾向于认为实现后一个目标的成本可以低一些。

美国根本没有能力治理中东,奥巴马往后撤,与特朗普稳定几个关键伙伴,做法上南辕北辙,但目的都是要对今天美国最有利、也最“物美价廉”的中东。前后任的这两位美国总统在朝不同方向做尝试。

奥巴马解决不了巴以冲突,也消除不了教派矛盾,甚至收拾不好“阿拉伯之春”的残局。特朗普大概根本就没想做这些事,他可能想从这些很难厘清曲直的大量问题里重新清理美国的利益,争取少投入点,多捞一点。他对打击IS等反恐行动说得最多,也是看到恐怖主义对他平稳执政的威胁最直接,其他的都可以推一推。

不要因为特朗普首访去了沙特和以色列,就误读了中东在这位美国总统心中的位置,这一点也许很重要。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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