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对此,我们只能视情加快和增加在相关岛礁上的阵地设置和装备部署。为了避免无端刺激局势紧张和误会,惊吓越南、菲律宾等,中方不妨专门针对美军量体裁衣,特意部署一些先进的针对美国舰机的装备。美军来的次数越多,动作越大,这种必要性和紧迫性就越强。
去年初,岛叔就提出,美国今后还将变换花样在南海进行武力示威和政策试探。在未遭遇实质性风险之前,这类试探?不会偃旗息鼓。阻止的有效方式,是适当升高对抗的等级,加大博弈的砝码,促使美国在风险过高时保持必要审慎。
回顾旧文,当时岛叔是这么写的——
“中国不妨将自己的底线告知美方,并发出明确警告,若再有此类行为,中方不能保证美国军舰的安全,美方将承担一切可能的后果”。考虑到中国今后在岛礁周围日益频繁的演习训练等活动,中国的这种警告应该被看成是良心和负责任之举。
如果美国继续在中国控制的南沙岛礁周围进行“无害通过”,中国的行动策略应是以维护岛礁安全为由,通过伴航、语音警告、近距离示威等方式,在现场给予美国足够压力;如果美国在南沙岛礁周围进行“有害通过”,或继续侵犯西沙领海,中国的行动策略应是以维护主权及安全为由,采取更强硬的措施,如紧贴威逼、航向管制、靠近驱逐、警告射击等。
“现场风险的上升,有助于美方重新审视自己行动的极限,中国的行动正是为了帮助美方看清现实,是防御性的威慑动作,而非是为了发起与美国的军事对抗”。
我们当然希望和平。所以,希望美国这届政府在南海的政策,不要走到需要中国推高南海对抗等级的程度。
责任编辑:穆启春 CN063、陈倩 CN030
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