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单边快涨格局不复存在 夯实信心静对休整

2017-09-14 08:26:23   新华网

从历史上每轮震荡市反弹周期来看,广发证券分析师廖凌表示,指数超过10%涨幅向上波段的平均维持时间为2.5个月,而6月以来,由于基本面、流动性和风险偏好三因子驱动的反弹经历3个月,指数上涨的“蜜月期”已经进入尾声,四季度的扰动因素在于国内金融监管和海外流动性的边际变化,需要警惕其对市场反弹的制约。

“消费”或接棒“周期”

9月9日,国家统计局公布8月通胀数据。数据显示,8月全国居民消费价格同比上涨1.8%;全国工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨6.3%,环比上涨0.9%。1-8月平均,全国居民消费价格总水平比去年同期上涨1.5%;工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨6.4%。总体看,8月CPI回升略超市场预期,供给侧改革继续推进和环保督查加码背景下,上游原材料价格易涨难跌,预计PPI在未来几个月仍将维持高位。在7月的基础上,当前经济增速依旧较为平稳。换句话说,作为经济基本面的“晴雨表”,A股中期向好依然底气十足,尽管经济尚处于“L”型底区间,但大盘高位之后的趋势性下跌并不具备可能性。

展望下半年行情,国泰君安证券分析师李少君认为,固定资产投资增速拐点和房地产开发投资拐点已现,周期板块还能继续表现的动力在于供给侧,环保督查+限产等供给端因素将周期拐点延后。但是,伴随上游挤压中游利润情况愈发严、基本面证伪压力加大、周期品价格上有顶预期强化,因此,周期品行业动能将逐步减弱。目前,A股正处于寻找周期接力棒的“转向之秋”。

站在当前时点,李少君还表示,目前伴随人民币强势背景下的热钱流入,消费稳增长特性将持续吸引海外配置力量,同时CPI上升预期将催化消费第二波行情到来。挖掘行业内相对竞争优势边际改善龙头仍是未来投资主线,建议在白酒、航空、汽车、商贸零售、家电等板块中,以一线龙头白马打底,二线蓝筹、中盘蓝筹、创蓝筹进攻作为投资组合。

招行证券也预计,此轮黄金周+双十一大概率比往年来得旺一些,可以提前布局可选消费,买在旺季来临前。具体方向上,建议投资者首先配置业绩增速相对稳定、前期涨幅较小、估值相对合理的板块。记者 叶涛

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