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乙醇汽油和市场,谁迁就谁

2017-09-14 07:22:27   中国经济网

让观念迎合市场,还是让市场迁就观念,这是一个哈姆雷特式的问题。

近日,国家发改委等15部委联合下文,提及到2020年,全国范围内将基本实现车用乙醇汽油全覆盖。

一石激起千层浪。老话题有了新解释,有了政府新的背书,对于中国这样一个冉冉升起的汽车大国,无论是企业还是个人,都不可能与之绝缘。

对于乙醇汽油,现在存在两个“舆论场”,各说各的:力挺派的理由是作为环境友好型的生物质能,使用乙醇汽油可以有效减少汽车尾气中的碳排放、细颗粒物排放以及其他有害物质的污染,从而改善空气质量;持怀疑态度的则认为乙醇汽油有天然“缺陷”,比如动力不足、损伤汽车引擎等。然而,这些论断,要么似是而非,要么人云亦云,总之感性大于理性,存在妖魔化的倾向。

不过,没有价格优势这一点,在所有诟病中相对靠谱一些。环保是“政治正确”,但市场选择往往是成本收益比较的结果。打破已经成型的路径依赖,不能只有动之以情,也要晓之以“利”。电动汽车在中国的快速发展,离不开财政补贴的强刺激。同理,乙醇汽油的推广,也应该利用价格杠杆,而不能做道德动员,以及简单粗暴的“一刀切”。

目前,在一些省市乙醇汽油得到近乎强制的推广,消费者没有“用脚投票”的权利,因此反弹情绪更强烈一些。基于信息不对称以及习惯使然,消费者对乙醇汽油并不感冒。我们至少需要一场有关乙醇汽油利弊的真理标准问题大讨论,直面国内的油品质量升级和车油标准不同步等问题,澄清的同时也倒逼改革。如果一味行政命令开道,将市场问题置换成是非问题,解决问题的成本将是不菲的。用市场化方式解决供需问题,从长期来看成本最低,并且一劳永逸。

事实上,乙醇汽油并不是一个人在战斗。稍早前,在中国汽车产业发展国际论坛上,工信部副部长辛国斌透露,针对一些国家已经制订了“燃油车禁售时间表”,目前工信部也启动了相关研究,将制订中国的时间表。同样也是一石激起千层浪。两则新闻放在一起看,不言而喻,清洁能源和新能源车的谋篇布局呼之欲出。

对外,我们签了应对全球气候变化的巴黎协定;对内,我们既有大气治理的民意压力,也有着相关产业“弯道超车”的考量。在传统燃油车行业,尽管多年来奉行“以市场换技术”,但效果并不如我们预期的那样丰厚,中国汽车行业并未形成核心竞争力。但在新能源车领域,中国至少没有输在起跑线上,甚至具备些许领先优势。中国的新能源车市场渐成规模,瞩目全球,如何趁热打铁,一举底定中国在新能源车产业上的优势和胜势,将是一篇大文章。

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