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资金市场监测:利率市场以稳为主

2017-09-12 09:37:29   中国经济网

9月9日,Shibor市场一涨六跌一平,波动幅度有所收窄,资金供求短期维持平衡局面。代表性利率的7天Shibor下跌0.09个基点至2.8014%,环比上周同期小幅下行。美元指数继续走弱,短期人民币汇率继续下降,目前已经击穿6.5的关口,升值势头依旧强劲。隔夜利率微涨0.80个基点至2.6440%,环比上周同期小幅下跌。14天利率微跌0.03个基点至3.7085%。一个月利率下跌0.31个基点至3.9339%,继续在“4%”以下振荡。国内商品出现走弱迹象,资源板块也开始出现回调,A股市场主力资金持续流出。十九大召开前夕,基本面较为平静,中长期利率延续小幅振荡。3个月、6个月、9个月和1年期利率分别报4.4034%、4.3974%、4.4011%、4.4033%。

图为隔夜、1周和1个月利率变化情况

表为Shibor(人民币)报价

近期上证综指仍处于上涨通道,展开调整的可能性上升。从日K线走势上分析,目前大盘横盘整理,中小板和创业板的人气有所提振,投资者做多氛围仍浓,使得上证综指的调整延后。就目前的经济运行态势,政府出台系统性刺激经济发展政策的可能性很小。因为经济发展势头良好,不需要更多的政策纠正。因此,我们认为股市调整只是时间问题。股市头寸较大的投资者不想平仓,可以利用股指期货进行适当套保。

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