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货币乘数逆势上扬的动力与前景

2017-09-09 07:11:44   中国经济网

综合来看,在M2下行速度的放缓、基础货币稳定供给背景下,下半年货币乘数持续攀升的趋势将终止,特别是在货币政策仍将保持稳健的前提下,货币乘数稳步回落将成为大概率事件。

(作者系苏宁金融研究院宏观经济研究中心、高级研究员)

资产项 负债项

国外资产(A1) 储备货币(L1)

外汇 货币发行(L1-1)

货币黄金 其他存款性公司存款(L1-2)

其他国外资产 非金融机构存款(L1-3)

对政府债权(A2) 不计入储备货币的金融性存款公司(L2)

其中:中央政府 发行债券(L3)

对其他存款性公司债权(A3) 国外负债(L4)

对其他金融性公司债权(A4) 政府存款(L5)

对非金融性部门债权(A5) 自有资金(L6)

其他资产(A6) 其他负债

总资产 总负债

资料来源:中国人民银行。注:非金融机构存款(L1-3)为新增负债项,为第三方支付机构交存人民银行的客户备付金存款,仅有6月和7月数据,7月末为901.4亿元。

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