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对冲货币贬值才是黄金的“价值所在”

2017-09-07 10:12:03   中国经济网

对投资者来说,黄金是对冲地缘政治的最佳工具。由于美国和朝鲜之间的紧张局势加剧加上特朗普政府的不确定性,黄金价格再次涨至11个月高位。不过高盛分析师却不这么认为。

  在一份讨论黄金作为“货币的最后手段”的优点的报告中,高盛首席货币分析师Jeffery Currie称,黄金是货币的最后手段,是对冲货币贬值的工具,而不是地缘政治风险。正因为如此,美国主要银行在谈及未来黄金价格预测时关注的是华盛顿政府戏剧性事件以及其对美元的影响。

自7月中旬以来,黄金价格已经上涨了100美元/盎司以上,而其中仅有15美元/盎司的涨幅可以用地缘政治问题来作解释。对此,Currie认为,实际上过去两个月时间里在华盛顿发生的政治事件和美元汇率的大幅下跌对金价造成的影响要远远大于地缘政治问题的影响。

他解释称,目前投资者很容易把近期黄金价格上涨归咎于近期朝鲜引燃的避险情绪。尽管避险情绪帮助黄金价格创造出新高,但它们未带来大幅溢价表明市场将军事升级和裁军视作尾部风险,这只是金价上涨的部分原因,真正促使金价上扬的是美元的走低:和黄金相反,美元在年初曾经被给予厚望,但却持续走低,甚至美元指数一度跌至92下方水平。

美元的疲软对黄金来说是非常关键的:一方面美元本身和金价有逆相关关系;另一方面,美元的弱势表现出了市场对特朗普政府缺乏信心,也表明了美国本身面临的各种问题,这对黄金都是利好的。值得注意的是,美元本身也是避险资产,但在近期朝鲜局势带来的避险情绪之下,美元却并没能获得推动,表明了投资者们更倾向于黄金。

他指出,未来数月,飓风哈维过后国会将不得不克服分歧通过预算法案以避免政府停摆,寻求尽快实施基建项目。我们的经济学家预计政府停摆的概率已经从先前的35%降低至15%,加上华盛顿政府正在不断推进其计划,政治不确定性将得到一定程度的缓解。除非朝鲜半岛紧张局势升级,否则将保持2017年底金价预期为1250美元/盎司,这意味着年底金价将从当前价格水平上下跌近100美元/盎司。

他还指出,特朗普的支持率是华盛顿风险的一个很好的指标,而且与利率和金价都有很高的相关性,这比地缘政治事件更重要。“特朗普的风险溢价已经反映在实际利率和美元走弱上了:在过去一年里,尤其是过去两个月中,华盛顿政府发生的事件助推了金价,随后便是美元走软。”

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