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“金九”消费旺季到来 沪胶去库存周期延续

2017-09-08 08:56:55   中国经济网

据统计,7月,我国重卡市场预计销售各类车型9.4万辆,较2016年同期的4.97万辆增长89%,环比只微弱下降。8月,市场产销量也不会低,预计在8.5万辆以上,同比增长超过70%。这样一来,2017年1—7月,重卡市场预计累计销售67.8万辆,较2016年同期的39万辆大幅增长74%,整体市场净增长28.8万辆,累计增速较1—6月的72%高出两个百分点。

按照1—7月67.8万辆的累计销量计算,要突破百万辆大关,就意味着在接下来的5个月时间里,重卡市场累计销量要达到32.23万辆,也就是月均销量达到6.45万辆。1—7月,国内重卡市场的月均销量是9.68万辆,按照目前各家主流企业的排产态势和旺盛的订单需求情况,完全看不到月均销量从9.7万辆陡然下降至6.5万辆以下的迹象。换言之,2017年重卡销售在时隔7年后,有望再次站到年销100万辆的水平上。回顾历史,重卡市场历史最高销量发生在2010年,当年的年销量达到101.74万辆。也就是说,2017年的年销量规模有望超过2010年,创下历史新高。

图为国内重卡销量走势

轮胎企业库存偏低

根据季节性规律,终端车市迎来“金九银十”消费旺季,订单增加会进一步提升轮胎行业的开工率,进而增强对上游天胶原料的采购力度。从这一角度来讲,轮胎企业在原料上需要提前补库。不过,受环保监察力度趋严的限制,截至9月初,下游轮胎行业开工情况依然欠佳,企业维持刚需采购,市场维持正常成交节奏。

可以看到,由于受环保监察、限电以及工人短缺的影响,山东地区多数轮胎企业有减产甚至停产的现象。据监测,9月初,山东地区轮胎企业全钢胎开工率为59.55%,周环比下滑3.69个百分点,较2016年同期下滑10.02个百分点。

由于轮胎企业开工率持续走低,而成品库存又消耗过快,企业整体库存水平偏低。为了缓解成本压力,近两个月以来,国内已有近70家轮胎企业宣布涨价,有的企业甚至连续两次宣布调涨。其中,8月中旬以后,有14家轮胎企业加入涨价大军,包括一些大型企业,如库铂、玲珑、正新、双星、银宝等。

目前,刚性需求依然旺盛,采购力度不减。从库存环节来看,青岛保税区橡胶库存持续下滑,库存压力显著缓解。据统计,截至9月1日,青岛保税区橡胶库存延续回落态势,较8月中旬下降10.2%,至20.33万吨;较年内高点27.88万吨回落27.08%。其中,天胶库存降至14.96万吨,较8月中旬回落2.17万吨,降幅达12.67%,也较年内高点21.70万吨回落31.06%。

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