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房企土地储备呈周期波动特征“金九银十”推盘节奏将加快

2017-09-06 07:32:02   中国经济网

在楼市调控从需求端传导至供给端后,国土资源部有关负责人在近日召开的全国土地利用管理工作会透露,近期国土部将在房地产热点城市开展住宅用地出让合同执行情况大检查,以期推动房地产开发商按合同约定开工、竣工,尽快形成住房有效供应,缓解市场供需矛盾。

“对于此类检查和执法来说,总体上符合当期补库存和积极增加供应的导向。”易居研究院智库研究中心总监严跃进昨日在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,若国土部将此次大检查落实到位,预计很多房企的投融资策略会有所转变,因为原来囤地的做法在未获得高利润前,就已被动增加风险。

从以往经验来看,每当楼市低迷时,房地产开发企业为降低入市风险通常会选择延迟开工,期待在后期楼市回暖时,将延后的开工项目高价售出,以博得更高利润。

近日易居研究院发布的研究报告指出,如在其选取的50个固定样本城市中,观察包括万科A、绿地控股、保利地产、华夏幸福等30家A股房企的四个历史阶段数据可以看出:房企土地储备情况有较为明显的周期波动特征。

具体来看,在2011年6月份—2012年7月份、2014年3月份—2015年8月份期间,上述30家房企土地储备均呈减少趋势,在这一阶段,全国楼市表现为调控持续收紧、房地产市场降温;而在2012年8月份—2014年2月份、2015年9月份—2017年8月份期间,30家房企土地储备又呈增加阶段。与土地储备阶段减少相对应的是,在这两个时期全国楼市均受到升温影响,前者是补库存动力不断增强,后者是去库存节奏加快使资金面不断完善,加之各地供地节奏加快,自然会推动房企储备规模的上升。

严跃进预计,在此前推盘节奏略有放缓以及房企年度销售目标压力下,预计在楼市“金九银十”阶段,房企有加快推盘的可能,另外从此类房企投资角度来看,预计拿地积极性将有所保持。

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