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股指“金九”行情蓄势待发
2017-09-06 10:41:52 中国经济网
市场进入多头布局重要窗口
8月整个市场氛围有了明显的回暖,上证指数在8月初经历短暂的调整后于8月中旬开始进入快速的反弹,强势突破3300点重要关口后一路振荡向上,一举创出近19个月以来的新高。整个8月,各大股指在一片做多氛围中均录得不同程度的上涨。其中,沪市月度累计涨幅为2.68%,深市涨幅达2.97%,创业板指的反弹力度最强,单月累计涨幅逾6.5%。我们认为,随着市场情绪的持续回暖,在政策面、经济面“维稳”预期的升温及改革的提速等因素催化下,9月仍然是一个非常好的秋季行情布局窗口期。
宏观经济基本面的韧性仍在延续
8月官方制造业PMI指数从上月的51.4%上升至51.7%,明显高于市场预期的51.3%,创下今年以来的次新高水平,表明三季度工业经济有望延续稳中向好的运行态势。第四轮中央环保督察正在进行,市场预期8月部分行业工业企业的生产活动将受到环保督察加码的压制。但PMI分项下的生产指数及新订单指数显示,8月生产、需求双方仍然整体向好,生产和内外需的韧性犹在。其中,生产指数从上月的53.5%上升至54.1%,新订单指数从上月的52.80%上升至53.10%。
7月宏观经济数据相比6月出现大幅下滑,一度引发市场对三季度经济走势的担忧。但8月制造业PMI指数超市场预期回升,再次佐证了7月经济数据的普遍回落并不意味着经济景气度出现明显下滑,而是非经济因素短期带来的局部扰动,例如夏季异常高温天气、部分区域环保限产趋严等非经济因素对单月经济数据形成了一定扰动。因而,8月PMI反弹很大程度上是对扰动因素影响的修复。伴随着扰动因素的逐渐消散,宏观经济的景气度也同时出现了显著回升。整体而言,从PMI对宏观经济走势预测的领先意义看,当下我国宏观经济的基本面韧性较强,经济对股市的支撑力量一直存在,利好将继续显现。
人民币汇率升值为市场带来一定增量资金
8月以来,伴随着美元指数的持续走弱及居民、企业连续的结售汇行为,人民币兑美元汇率一路大幅走高。数据显示,8月在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率累计升值的幅度均逾2%,创下2005年7月汇率机制改革以来最大单月涨幅,今年以来人民币汇率升值的幅度更是超过了5%。总体来看,受益于美元的持续走弱以及国内经济基本面的韧性,再叠加人民币汇率形成机制进一步完善等因素,我们预计人民币兑美元汇率未来或仍有上行的空间。
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