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可见,在上述五只灰犀牛中,地方债务是只“头牛”。但若简单将地方债务定性为各级地方政府的“误作非为”,显然是不准确的。因为地方债务这只牛的主人恰恰是中央政府。
众所周知,中国在2008年全球金融危机中率先实现复苏,能够取得如此成绩,与当时中国实施特有的反危机措施密不可分。这个特有之处就在于,中央政府的反危机策略选择通过向地方政府下放金融配置权来拉动经济(可以作为对比的是,1997年亚洲金融危机时中央政府大力上收了地方政府的金融配置权),正是这一下放,才使得4万亿刺激计划之后,金融机构快速扩表,截至2017年6月底,银行业金融机构资产余额达237万亿元,是2007年底的4.5倍。
另外,这一下放还意味着中央对地方投资饥渴症和财务约束的放松,所以一定会出现融资平台、影子银行快速扩张引发的金融“脱媒”。而这些金融变化带动家庭居民金融介入程度的加深,又进一步加剧了社会融资结构的变化,导致近年来“金融和实体冷热不均”的异化,直至出现以“脱实向虚”和“金融空转”的诸多金融乱象。
正是因为中央政府才是地方债务这只牛的主人,所以在“谁的孩子,谁抱走”的经济责任核算原则下,才有了:自2013年至今的地方债务持续摸底调查工作,和2015年启动的地方债务置换工作,以及“开正门,堵后门”地方政府举债思路的明确。其中地方债置换又最为关键,因为地方债置换明面上帮助地方政府减轻债务负担,实质却是中央政府认领债务和减轻自身负担。首先,融资平台类的地方债务和地方政府债券类的债务相比,后者是经过地方政府明确背书的债务(类似国债),而在中国的财政体制下,地方政府明确背书后的债务均可转嫁给中央政府,中央政府也必须兜底,所以地方债置换(融资平台为主的各类地方债务置换为地方政府债券),本质上就是中央政府认领债务。其次,2015年4月份,时任财长楼继伟在清华讲座时披露,如果15万亿元地方债务全部置换出来,最终政府债务每年节省利息支出的规模将达到5000亿元上下,这部分利息表面上是为地方政府节省的,实质上却是为中央政府节省的。
除了上述技术上的细节之外,地方债务问题背后反映的是中央和地方的“草料之争”。因为政府财政基本就四件事——“收、支、管、平”,即收入、支出、管理和平衡,其中收入和支出是政府“以财行政”的施力点,收支平衡是约束条件,此三点如何摆布,这就是管理,而在管理之中贯穿始终最核心的则是中央和地方的关系。实际上中国财政制度的变迁另一侧面就是中央和地方财政关系的调整。
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