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中美贸易战特朗普未战先怯 签备忘录暗藏退路

2017-08-16 08:16:27   侠客岛

北京时间的今天(8月15日),特朗普终于签下行政令,责成美国贸易代表对中国的“不公平贸易行为”发起调查,也就是终于挥舞起了媒体口中的“301大棒”。其理由,是“中国企业涉嫌侵犯美国知识产权和迫使美国企业技术转让”。

事实上,一段时间以来,“特朗普是否会向中国发起贸易战”的话题,世界媒体都相当关注。这次特朗普的最新行为虽然称不上是绝对意义上的“贸易战”,但其透露出的信号,依然值得我们重视。

这也是为什么中国的外交部和商务部连续回应此事、并警告和敦促美方不要贸然行事的原因。

法案

所谓“301大棒”,指的是美国《1974年贸易法》的第301条。这个条款之所以被称为“大棒”,是因为其规定,让美国有了可以拿来做贸易“武器”的可能。

这一条款怎么规定的呢?“当美国单方认定贸易不合理时”,美国就可以启动调查和谈判,一旦谈判结果不遂己意,就可以祭出贸易上的报复性手段,包括但不限于中止贸易协定、投资壁垒、取消免税待遇、惩罚性关税等。

注意,这其中的关键,在于“单边。只要美国认定别国的某些贸易行为“不合理”、“不合法”、“不公正”,就可以启动这种调查,以强迫对手国改变其贸易做法、法律法规等。

如名字所示的那样,这一法条是在1974年制定的。在后续的修订中,还出现了“超级301条款”和“特殊301条款”,前者针对贸易自由化,后者则针对知识产权保护。

40年来,美国使用这一工具最频繁的时期是上世纪80年代。在中国加入WTO之前,美国曾于1991年、1994年、1996年三次对中国发起“特别301调查”;入世之后的2010年,美国也曾对中国新能源发起301调查。

影响当然很大。比如2010年那次,最终中国同意停止对使用国产零部件的风电企业提供补贴;1989年对日本启动的特殊301调查,迫使日本开放计算机、卫星、林产品市场;90年代的三次调查,则也让中国先后修订了《专利法》、《商标法》,颁布《反不正当竞争法》等知识产权保法律法规。

事实上,加入WTO之后,由于有WTO的裁判机制,美国301条款这种带有强烈单边主义色彩的机制已经很少使用。2004年和2007年,美国贸易代表办公室就两次拒绝了国内组织团体对中国申请301调查的提议。

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