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社评:中美贸易战,中方无需比美国更担心

2017-08-15 08:27:17   中国青年网

据白宫透露,特朗普总统将于美国东部时间星期一下午宣布美方将根据《贸易法》第301条款调查中国的贸易行为,调查内容包括中国涉嫌侵犯美国知识产权和强制美国企业进行技术转让的相关指控等。

“301条款”是美国1974年《贸易法》第301条的简称,它要求美国总统对外国所谓“不公正、不合理”的贸易行为等采取所有适当并且可行的行动。美国曾对日本、亚洲四小龙使用过301条款,自世贸组织1995年运行以来,301条款已基本闲置不用。

特朗普对国际关系、包括对中美关系的认识是简单化的,他根深蒂固地认为美国从现有国际贸易体系中吃亏了,尤其被中国占了便宜。美国2016年的贸易逆差是5023亿美元,其中对中国的贸易逆差超过3000亿,估计他一听这个数字就有点“恼火”,不太有耐心研究中美贸易的实际情形。

然而301条款是美国国内法,用它来规范国际贸易,肯定驴唇不对马嘴。没有一届美国政府希望美国存在大量贸易逆差,但逆差规模不断扩大,说明这当中有美国克服不了的内在原因。势比人强,特朗普不是神,他手中并没有支持他对同为贸易巨人的中国任意使用301杠杆的力量。

北京不必对看来终将到来的中美贸易冲突过分担心,很多经济体都挨过美国的301棍子,但连小经济体都没有被打垮过,更何况中国大陆这样的超级贸易力量。

日本和亚洲四小龙大多在政治和经济上同时依附美国,从战略上说,它们的繁荣只能是美国繁荣的副产品,它们与美国不是平等互动的关系,对来自它们的竞争,华盛顿的容忍度极低。剥夺它们的某些权利,华盛顿也可无所顾忌。

中国大陆不同,我们政治和经济上的独立性都很突出,一旦动用301条款制裁中国,美方对遭到报复是有预期的。从理性角度分析,特朗普政府在贸易领域对华发难应有所顾忌,它需控制301条款的使用范围,避免中美两国走向全面贸易战。

中国在这种情况下首先要充分利用WTO机制,控告美方贸易保护主义行为。特朗普政府的贸易政策广受诟病,尽管WTO诉讼耗时费力,但中国能打赢一批官司的概率很高。

特朗普政府有可能很固执地回到301条款的老路上去,那么中国就可以有针对性地开展贸易报复,以牙还牙。虽然美方打贸易战的实力强于中国,但是美国社会和舆论对“杀敌一千自损八百”的承受力很弱,中美贸易战一起,目前支持对华强硬的声音就会分化出一大批抗议特朗普政府的,白宫很难把贸易战无限扩大下去。

美方不断把贸易与朝核问题等搅到一起说,这样的“连坐”不受现实逻辑的支持,很难往深处推演。中美一旦发生贸易战,会一定程度上影响两国关系的大氛围,但贸易战不是中美关系的全部,北京与华盛顿都不会将之看成两国摊牌的某种标志,而会继续维系彼此关系的复杂格局。

中国要多准备与美斗争的“常规武器”,并且频繁使用它们。美方动辄派军舰在南海转一圈,如今又要对华启动301调查,更不要说美国官员各种对华不友好的发声了。华盛顿左右开弓,显得颇为主动。而中方极少有先于美方出击的情况,有时连回应都不愿意太高调,这种情况应予改变。

从美与其他国家的各种冲突中不难看出,华盛顿是颇有几分欺软怕硬的。中国当然不能做咄咄逼人的挑衅者,但我们是不好惹的,这须是华盛顿对中国的基础性认识之一。

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