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范大路:我国银行业运行稳健?资产质量改善趋势明显

2017-09-22 20:17:00   中国经济网

近日,标普宣布下调中国长期主权信用评级。这是继穆迪今年5月下调中国本币和外币发行人评级之后,又一国际评级机构下调中国主权信用评级。原因在于担忧中国的金融稳定性。

作为我国金融业的核心部门,当前我国银行业运行稳健,风险可控,去杠杆效果逐步显现,服务实体经济的能力进一步增强和提升。标普对我国金融稳定性的担忧毫无根据、难以立足。

一是净利润增速有所回升。2017年上半年,商业银行当年累计实现净利润9,703亿元,同比增长7.92%,行业净利润增速自2016年三季度以来持续回升。五大国有商业银行净利润增速保持在2%-4%之间,普遍好转。其中,建行、中行、农行、交行的税后净利润同比增速都在3%以上,相比去年底1%左右的增速有明显反弹态势。净利润增速回暖态势明显原因主要在于:息差好转,资产质量好转。

二是资产质量总体平稳。2017年二季度末,商业银行不良贷款余额1.64万亿元;不良贷款率1.74%,与一季度末持平,已经连续三个季度保持稳定;关注类贷款占比为3.64%,较一季度末下降0.13个百分点;不良贷款和关注类贷款余额较年初分别增长1235亿元和637亿元,较去年同比分别少增394亿元和3705亿元,增速大幅下降,不良贷款的生成速度明显放缓,资产质量好转趋势明显。同时,风险抵补能力继续加强。商业银行贷款损失准备余额为28983亿元,较一季度末增加747亿元;拨备覆盖率为177.2%,较一季度末下降1.58个百分点,与国际上相比仍处于较高水平;贷款拨备率为3.09%,较一季度末下降0.02个百分点。

三是金融去杠杆效果明显。同业业务持续收缩,8月末,同业资产、同业负债分别较年初减少3.2万亿元和1.4万亿元,同比增速分别为-13.8%和-1.6%。理财产品增速连续下降,理财产品余额同比增速降至6.5%,较去年同期下降27个百分点,已连续7个月下降,其中,今年以来同业理财累计减少2.2万亿元。投资业务中,特定目的载体投资增速显著下降,该领域投资只增加了8000多亿元,同比少增4万多亿元,增速较去年同期大幅下降36.7个百分点。委托贷款增长持续放缓,近几个月保持减少态势,同比少增6100多亿元。

总体来看,我国经济呈现“缓中趋稳,稳中向好”态势,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的有利因素进一步增多;银行业总体运行稳健,净利润增速有所回升,资产质量改善趋势明显,金融去杠杆效果显著,不会发生系统性金融风险。

(郑州银行金融研究院院长 范大路)

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