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人民日报:楼市疯了?!

2016-09-20 14:33:08   人民日报

中国人民银行近日发布《2016年第三季度城镇储户问卷调查报告》,对全国50个城市2万户城镇储户进行问卷调查。结果显示,53.7%的居民认为目前房价“高,难以接受”,42.9%的居民认为目前房价“可以接受”,仅有3.4%的居民认为“令人满意”。

国家统计局专家对8月数据进行了解读,环比来看,一、二、三线城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格涨幅均有所扩大。再看同比,一线城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格同比涨幅在连续三个月收窄后有所扩大,二、三线城市继续扩大。

这一轮房价为什么暴涨?

一件物品价格上涨,简单说,是因为有买家竞争超过了卖家竞争,才有物品涨价。房价也是如此,高房价背后总免不了有钱的影子。

广义货币M2是一个最近经常被提及的数据。有媒体统计,自2000年以来,M2增长超过10倍。这也就意味着,在市面上流通的钱多了,房地产就是重要的流向。

还有一个数据的下滑值得关注,那就是民间固定资产投资。多年来,这个数据一直保持两位数的增长,但是今年1-7月竟滑落至2.1%。这背后反映的是民间资本投资实业的比例在下降。钱去哪了?有媒体报道过,广东珠海等地的一些民营企业开始卖厂卖房,把钱投向房地产。

个人房贷大爆发。据央行的数据,7月人民币贷款增加4636亿元,住户部门贷款增加4575亿元。也就是说,7月份新增贷款几乎全部来自房贷。这从一个侧面说明,居民借贷买房的热情无比高涨,无疑也在助推房价上涨。

而为什么像郑州这样的二线城市在领跑?

有分析认为,这是此前火热的一线城市和强二线城市资金刺激而致。据中原地产统计,8月全国共产生46宗溢价率超过100%地块,主要分布在珠海、郑州、武汉、无锡、天津等城市。9月以来,高溢价率地块主要分布在佛山、无锡、东莞等地。而在今年上半年,出现高价地最多的城市分别是上海、苏州、南京、合肥。

这说明房企拿地的重点区域,正在向东部核心区域(环渤海、珠三角、长三角的其它二线城市),以及中西部区域中心城市(郑州、武汉等)转移,房产商大量进入,房价自然上涨。

多地重启限购限贷政策

在杭州之前,今年的“房价四小龙”合肥、苏州、南京、厦门等热点二线城市已经先后伸出了调控之手。

合肥:限贷。合肥以抬高首付比例的方式来抑制购房,比如,已经有贷款记录的,首付比例为40%。当个人想买第3套房时,则无法使用住房公积金贷款。

苏州:外地购房者限购。外地居民购买第2套住房时,要在最近2年内,缴满1年税或者社保。

南京:限贷。南京政策与合肥类似,都是限制首付比例。不同的是,到第3套房时,就不发放贷款了。

厦门:限购。厦门则在房屋面积上抬高了门槛,有三种类型的居民家庭,暂停向其销售建筑面积144平方米及以下的普通商品住房。

武汉:限贷。在武汉,当你已有一套或以上房,首付比例均为40%,到第三套时,暂停发放相应购房贷款。

郑州:房九条。被业界称为“为限制地王量身定制”。“限地价,竞房价”,土地出让时,网挂报价超过50%溢价率时,网挂报价中止。

有专家预测,未来天津、济南、昆山、廊坊等热点城市都有可能跟进,进一步收紧楼市。在已经收紧政策的城市当中,比如合肥和南京,仍然高烧不退,也有可能再出台相关的政策。

限购是否能够起效?各界的观点并不一致。有分析称,限购能够最大程度抑制房地产投机行为。有观点认为,限购只能算作一剂降温药,对于高烧的房价而言,它只能起到短效降温避免病情恶化的效果,却不能治病。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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