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日本生育率过低,18岁至34岁年轻人三分之一童男童女

2017-08-31 16:24:22   瞭望智库

在传统社会,性主要通过家庭而获得,通过家庭而获得的性往往导致生育。但现在则不是,男女都可以通过不同形式的性市场获得性,而通过性市场而得到的性没有再生产(生育)功能。(尽管这种形式的性也会产生类似“私生子”的现象,但“私生子”这个群体的数量可以忽略不计。)今天,互联网的迅猛发展更是加快了性市场发达,使得性交易更加简单。

4,宗教和生育率的关系

从经验现象看,生育可能和马尔萨斯所说的“道德因素”有关。不过,这种关联并不是马尔萨斯所说的“抑制”生育,而是鼓励因素。在今天的世界,很容易观察得到道德因素,尤其是宗教因素和生育率高低至少在现象上的关联。在当代欧洲社会,尽管也经历了严重的生育率下降问题,但宗教的复苏仍然为人们的生育提供着动机,再加上福利社会等因素,生育率有所改善。

宗教和生育率的关系在穆斯林世界表现最为明显。在穆斯林社会,无论是发达社会还是比较落后的社会,生育率都没有受到太大的影响。实际上,随着社会经济发展水平的提高,生育率也在提高。再者,社会经济的发展也有效降低了穆斯林社会的婴儿死亡率,提高人们的人均寿命。因此,这些年来,在世界各文明中,穆斯林的人口增加迅速。

比较而言,东亚社会遇到的麻烦就很大。正如本文前面所讨论的,这个地区的各经济体都面临着生育危机。尽管东亚一些发达社会也希望仿照欧洲的福利社会,通过改善家庭的福利来“刺激”生育,但至少到现在为止,并没有找到任何有效的手段来改善生育。

一种解释是,通过诸如福利而得到的“刺激”机制,远不能抵消资本主义所产生的巨大压力。另一种解释是,低生育率是一种文化,一旦这种文化形成,转化成为人们的观念,那么无论怎样的政府政策都难以改变这种文化。

不过,如果回到马尔萨斯,那么人们可以认为,影响东亚社会低生育率的主要是道德因素。东亚社会并非欧洲或者穆斯林那样的宗教社会,而是世俗化社会。传统道德是通过社会共同体和家庭制度而形成。今天,随着家庭和社会共同体的解体,东亚社会已经没有任何能够促成人口增长的道德因素,包括宗教因素。

任何社会,人口是最基本的社会要素,所有其他的一切包括经济和政治,都是建立在人口这个基本要素之上的。资本主义的发展“俘虏”了社会和政治,使得社会和政治都从属于自己,因此社会的重心从人类本身的再生产,转移到了经济要素的再生产。

这就表明,只要资本主义仍然是东亚社会的组织原则和意识形态,那么东亚社会的生育危机很难得到缓解。今天人们的思考仅仅停留在表面,极其肤浅,例如如何用机器人来替代人工等。

如果不能超越资本主义,那么人口危机因此也是最深刻的社会危机,只是一个时间问题,而不是可能性问题。即使就时间来说,任何一位人口学家都可以精确地预测,每一个经济体的危机什么时候到来。

责任编辑:高宗影 CN060
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