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日本生育率过低,18岁至34岁年轻人三分之一童男童女

2017-08-31 16:24:22   瞭望智库

根据一项研究,中国男性的精子数(即每毫升精液中的精子数目)从上世纪70年代初的1亿个,大幅度下降到2012年的2000万个。伴随经济发展而来的生活压力、污染、结婚及生育年龄的推迟、抽烟及喝酒等都可能导致这一现象的产生。

中国华中地区的一项调查显示,2015年在接受检查的男子中,大约18%的人具有足够数量的精液,可以符合捐献精子的标准,而这一比率在2001年的时候要高得多,是56%。无论精子数量的减少还是质量的下降,都影响生育。也很显然,这种现象也发生在东亚其他经济体中。

2,马尔萨斯人口论的预测落空

东亚社会的低生育危机几乎和18世纪末马尔萨斯的“人口论”所预测的截然相反。马尔萨斯“人口论”的核心就是人口的过度增长会导致人类生存危机。这一理论有两个前提:第一、食物是人类生存所必需的;第二、两性间的情欲是必然的,而且几乎会是永恒状态。

从这两个前提出发可以得出一个基本的经济学比例,即食物或者生产资料的增长与人口的增值之间的关系:人口的增值比生活资料增长要快,人口是按照几何级数增长的,而生活资料则只按算术级数增长。保持两个级数平衡的唯一出路就是抑制人口增长。

马尔萨斯认为,抑制人口增长分为预防抑制和积极抑制两种。预防抑制主要是道德的抑制,即考虑到无力负担家庭而不结婚或者推迟结婚;而起决定性作用的主要是积极抑制,即战争、瘟疫、繁重劳动、贫困、饥荒等等,灾难会缩短生命,恢复被平衡的平衡。

把马尔萨斯的“人口理论”放置于今天上述东亚的人口现实,没有多少人可以理解。马尔萨斯人口理论曾红极一时,并对很多国家的人口政策产生过重大影响。那么为什么在这个被视为是科学的理论和今天的现实之间产生那么巨大的差异呢?产生这种差异的因素可能很多,但资本主义则是关键要素。

在马尔萨斯创造“人口理论”时期,世界还处于原始资本主义阶段,他所理解的世界也是他所目睹的世界,即一个充满饥饿、病痛、贫困、瘟疫和战争的世界。

马尔萨斯大概没有想象到,他所经验到的经济制度在他死后不仅彻底改变了人类的经济生态,而且更是改变了人类的生育环境。或者说,资本主义不仅为人类创造了巨大的财富,把人们从瘟疫、繁重劳动、贫困和饥荒中解救出来,而且有效地制约了人们的生育动机。无论在哪个角度来看,生育并不是资本主义的一部分;相反,资本主义对生育产生着负面的影响,制造着人类的生育危机。

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