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白酒行业马太效应加剧 茅五泸齐扩产补高端酒

2017-09-28 07:17:51   

今年初,五粮液董事长刘中国对外表示,五粮液总体产能无法满足市场需求。五粮液6月时对外称,“十三五”期间,五粮液一方面要再建一个10万吨的生产基地,使普五投放量有望突破2万吨;一方面还要新增30万吨的原酒储存能力。后者即最新开工的包装项目。

在白酒行业此轮深度调整前,大肆产能扩张也曾上演。但彼时产能扩张多快速中止,更有盲目扩张的中小酒企面临产能无法消化,甚至被淘汰的命运。

一位长期关注酒业的机构人士认为,两轮扩产之间有本质上的区别。“从已有的扩产动作来看,其实施主体多是产销两旺或处于本轮复苏最受益酒企阵营中的企业,其中以一线或知名酒企为主,并非全行业一窝蜂地扩张。从目的上来看,彼时酒企更多是出于变相圈地、抢先占位而扩张,现在更多是基于企业与市场的需要。”

扩产基于市场需求或结构升级

五粮液集团董事长李曙光近期还曾对外表示,白酒行业的产能过剩仍是一个主要矛盾。

某赤水河沿岸中型酒厂的内部人士告诉《每日经济新闻》记者,2013年前后,受宏观经济形势下行、严控“三公消费”等政策影响,多家酒企销售困难。而且伴随前几年扩产成果的大爆发,其所在区域除贵州茅台能维系增长外,多家酒厂裁员、减产,稍有实力者寻求被收购,不少小酒厂直接关门大吉。

白酒业的产能过剩曾备受诟病。2011年,中国白酒产量已高达1025.6万千升。而根据相关行业规划,原本计划“十二五”达到960万千升。就此,某国内知名酒企内部人士认为,行业产能结构性过剩及集中度低等问题依旧存在。产能过剩的行业问题需警醒,不过,前述多家计划扩产的酒企对应中高端酒产能已接近饱和。

以泸州老窖为例,招商证券分析认为,泸州老窖2015年的产量为19.12万吨,预计国窖1573、特曲、窖龄(中高端产品)三者的产量累计不足1万吨,且国窖1573的核心产能仅为3000吨,与同档次的五粮液普五等差距较大,产能方面“欠债”较多。

泸州老窖表示,前述30亿募投扩产项目实施完毕后将建成优质基酒生产窖池7000口,并通过引入先进生产设备,逐步实现对落后产能的替代,提升公司在中高端白酒领域的市场占有率。

今年来,飞天茅台酒价格飞升、市场断供,与茅台酒基酒产能未到储存时效、不能及时生产有关。以其2016年销售数据为例,贵州茅台去年销售茅台酒2.29万吨。而按照茅台酒基酒一般至少储存五年来算,对应2011年的生产量为3.00万吨左右。加上部分用于做老酒储存,茅台酒的供应显得较为紧张。

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