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美媒称中国出口产品将转型升级:“中国制造”越来越高端

2017-09-26 07:41:54   中国网

美媒称,在连续数十年强劲增长后,中国在全球出口中所占份额如今正在缓慢下降。不过,这可能只是一个暂时现象。

据美国彭博新闻社网站9月24日报道,国际货币基金组织的数据显示,中国在全球出口中所占份额于2015年12月攀上最高点,如今已经出现萎缩。英国牛津经济咨询社和美国西部信托公司的经济学家们表示,中国出口份额的下降,主要是巴西和澳大利亚等大宗商品出口国的出口增长所致,这些国家因铁矿石和铝土矿等大宗商品价格上升而受益。

英国汇丰银行控股公司说,另一个因素是全球需求如今更倾向于高端制造和汽车产品,而中国才刚刚开始以竞争者的姿态进入这些领域。

汇丰银行亚洲经济研究专家弗雷德里克·诺伊曼说:“中国近来出口市场份额下降更可能是一个暂时现象,而非一个长期趋势的开始。随着中国在全球国民生产总值中所占份额持续上升,其在全球出口市场的份额也可能扩大,出口产品将既包括大众产品,又包括越来越多的高端产品。”

诺伊曼说,全球汽车需求反弹提振了德国和日本出口,而中国在半导体产品方面有很大贸易赤字。他说,随着中国的产业政策为高端制造业不断提供动力,这种情况将出现逆转,中国将从发达经济体手中分走份额。

报道称,纺织和家具等低端产业面临的市场份额压力最大。这符合中国转型到电动汽车和机器人等更高附加值的产业政策。最近对污染企业的打击措施已经提高了印染和纸品生产等行业的成本,压制了它们的产品竞争力。

中国低端产业面临的挑战还包括工人工资水平上升、劳动力减少以及来自孟加拉国和越南等薪资更低国家在T恤等廉价产品出口方面的竞争。

世界贸易组织的数据显示,尽管中国去年仍是世界最大的纺织品出口国,约占全球纺织品出口的37%,但出口额下降了3%为1060亿美元。越南和巴基斯坦等国获得的份额越来越大,其中越南在去年跻身全球十大纺织品出口国和地区行列,在全球纺织品出口市场所占比重达到7%。

西部信托公司分析师、前美国财政部中国事务专家戴维·洛文杰说,中国丢失的一部分市场份额得到出口的国内附加值弥补。据经济合作与发展组织的最新数据显示,2014年中国出口总值中的国内附加值比例已经上升到71%,而十年前是62%。

洛文杰说,由于中国是制造业出口大国,因此当全球大宗商品价格处于最低点时,其市场份额反而能达到最高点,这并不奇怪。他说:“随着大宗商品价格上升,大宗商品生产国在全球出口市场的份额就会跟着增加。”

位于北京的一个市场研究公司专家安德鲁·波尔克说,一个经济体还会受其进口飙升影响,因为这名义上会增加其他国家的全球出口份额。波尔克说:“中国最大的问题是不能向自己这个世界第二大经济体出口。真正的受益者是其他新兴经济体,尤其是亚洲的经济体和原材料出口国和地区。”(郭骏)

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