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市场化步入第二年 玉米价格谁说了算

2017-09-26 09:52:54   中国经济网

另据了解,去年8月1日,国家再度将玉米淀粉出口退税提高到13%,加上成本下降,进一步提振玉米淀粉出口。去年全年,我国玉米淀粉出口量为13.28万吨,同比增加5.90万吨,增幅为9.9%。今年截至7月,我国出口玉米淀粉15.3万吨,较2016年同期提升177%。今年全年,玉米淀粉需求量预计达到2450万吨,同比增长8.5%。

玉米淀粉需求增加,玉米饲用需求同样好转。雏鹰农牧集团股份有限公司董事长助理王爱彦认为,我国已经成为全球最大的猪肉生产国和消费国,对我国消费者而言,猪肉是最重要的肉类,虽然其市场份额逐渐下降,但猪肉消费在农村仍然较低,猪肉市场具有进一步扩张的潜力。由于当前国内玉米价格较低,玉米饲料需求增长很快,而且小麦等替代品已被饲料原料市场挤压出去,玉米需求全面提升。

“我国是该通过进口玉米还是该通过进口猪肉来解决当前的饲料短缺问题,需要详细分析。国内玉米种植并不具备比较优势、居民偏好新鲜猪肉而非冻肉。因此,进口玉米更加具有战略意义、更加符合经济利益。”王爱彦说。

全国畜牧总站站长杨振海表示,我国是一个人口大国,尽管当前玉米库存较高,但市场预期一发生变化,库存消化就将加速,当前的去库存速度就超出了预期。

“玉米产量从2007年的1.52亿吨增加到去年的2.2亿吨,增幅为44.7%。与此同时,播种面积从4.42亿亩增加到5.51亿亩,增幅为24.7%。玉米已经成为我国第一大粮食作物。”杨振海表示,国内玉米市场已经由过去的供应不足向目前的供需基本平衡甚至阶段性、结构性过剩转变。此外,玉米收储政策在过去10年也发生了重大变化,从实施到取消临储收购政策,再到实施“市场化收购+补贴”政策,国内玉米价格从高于配额内进口完税价格到与国外价格接轨,具备了一定的竞争力。

杨振海认为,玉米是农业供给侧结构性改革的重点,也是难点。玉米产业链条长,覆盖种植业、养殖业和加工业,具有率先实现一二三产业融合的先天优势,是培育农业农村新动能的重要增长点。同时,玉米结构调整关系着农民的“钱袋子”和居民的“米袋子”,任务艰巨。围绕玉米结构优化,有关机构从生产和消费两端发力,制定了一系列政策措施,加快推进种植业结构调整。其中,主要是“一减三转”。一减是源头减量。三转是过腹转化、加工转化和能源转化。我国燃料乙醇产业诞生的最初目的就是解决陈化粮问题。随着政府对环保重视程度的加大,燃料乙醇在促进农业发展、改善生态环境、调整能源结构方面具有一定优势。近期,国家发展改革委、国家能源局等多个部门联合印发《关于扩大生物燃料乙醇生产和推广使用车用乙醇汽油的实施方案》,明确在全国范围内推广使用车用乙醇汽油,到2020年基本实现全覆盖,引起社会广泛关注。此举将进一步刺激燃料乙醇工业的发展,进而带动玉米消费。

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