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节前市场料将继续震荡运行

2017-09-25 07:32:52   中国经济网

上周两市振幅有所加剧,沪指一周连续整理期间一度下探至30日均线附近,周五收盘仍收于5、10日短期均线下方,深成指尽管一度走强创出反弹新高,但周四、周五的连续调整仍使得其尽数回吐前期涨幅。盘面看上周两市板块呈现较为明显的分化格局,周期板块的集体走弱成为拖累指数运行的主要原因,但与此同时白酒、券商、通信等的轮番活跃对市场形成支撑。对于后期,结合各方面因素分析,国庆长假前多空相对均衡的市场环境决定了A股整体仍将维持震荡格局,沪深指数走出超预期行情的可能性不大。

从相对积极的方面看,相对稳定的资金市场、持续改善的投资者情绪将对后期A股形成支撑。在削峰填谷的调控思路下,当前随着假期的临近央行公开市场操作力度明显增大,继前期重启28天逆回购操作后,近两周央行连续进行巨额资金投放,尽管其目的主要在于对冲到期资金,但央行强有力的公开市场操作不仅保证了节前国内资金市场的稳定,同时也对市场心理的稳定形成积极影响。当前A股投资者情绪随着沪深两市的持续稳定运行进一步改善,指标方面直接体现为两市融资余额的稳步回升,盘面则表现为热点板块个股的轮番活跃,在不出现明显负面因素冲击的情况下,市场情绪改善的趋势仍有望延续,沪深两市运行也将因此受到持续的支撑。

从偏负面的角度看,短期A股面临的不利局面同样明显,低于预期的经济数据、商品期货连续调整等,均将在一定程度上拖累两市运行。国家统计局公布的8月经济数据普遍低于预期,M2增速同样创出历史新低,彰显国内经济增长再度面临的下行压力以及管理层去杠杆的决心;而伴随经济指标的回落,近两周来国内商品市场期货价格连续调整,尤其与实体经济运行密切相关的品种跌幅明显,其在很大程度上表明前期市场对经济将持续好于预期以及供给侧改革将支撑商品价格的信心已出现动摇。对于A股而言,前期市场的上涨在很大程度上是建立在经济好于预期以及周期产品涨价的基础之上,当前随着这一逻辑被证伪,相关板块个股将面临持续调整的压力,这在近两周的盘面上已有所体现,后期这一趋势预计仍将延续。

在此背景下沪深两市料将延续震荡格局,其走出超预期行情的可能性有限。

本周趋势看平

中线趋势看多

本周区间 3200-3400点

本周热点券商、通信、电子

本周焦点商品市场表现

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