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人民币汇率将双向波动稳中有升

2017-09-25 08:52:53   中国经济网

第一个周期是2016年1月29日至5月2日,美元指数从99.56下行至92.6,贬值幅度接近7%,而同期人民币对美元汇率中间价仅从6.55上升到6.46,升值幅度不及1%,相应地,人民币汇率指数(CFETS)则从100.15下行至96.61,贬值幅度4.2%。在此阶段,人民币实际购买力跟随美元贬值而被动贬值。

第二个周期是2017年1月3日至引入“逆周期因子”的5月26日,美元指数从103.28降至97.41,贬值幅度为5.7%,同期人民币对美元汇率仅从6.95上升到6.87,升幅1.15%,相应地人民币汇率指数也从95.25下行至92.26,贬值幅度超过3%。

在5月26日逆周期因子引入之后,美元继续处于贬值周期,美元指数从97.48最低回落到9月7日的91.5,贬值幅度6%,在此期间人民币对美元汇率也从6.87升值到6.49,升值幅度达到5.55%,与美元贬值的幅度基本相当。与此同时,人民币汇率指数甚至保持了稳中有升的态势,从92.26上升到95.16,升值幅度为3.14%,结束了在引入逆周期因子之前人民币汇率指数单边贬值的态势,保持了人民币对一篮子货币汇率稳中有升的趋势。这正是逆周期因子对人民币汇率中间价形成过程中所发挥的关键影响。

影响美元走势的关键因素

对于普通投资者而言,最为关注的依然是人民币对美元的汇率。如前文所述,加入逆周期因子后,人民币汇率指数保持相对稳定的可能性更大,相应地,人民币对美元汇率将被动跟随美元走势而波动。

短期看,美联储货币政策的确会影响美元汇率的预期,但长期看,美联储货币政策就显得不那么重要了。具体看,在近三十年来美联储多次加息周期中,美元屡屡走弱,1986-1988年加息周期、1993-1994年加息周期、2006年加息周期中,美元指数均呈现持续回落的态势。同样,当前美联储仍处于加息周期中,但今年以来美元指数持续回落。

那么,影响美元指数走势的关键变量是什么?答案可能是美国经济的基本面。在此,笔者用美国GDP占全球的比重,来衡量美国经济相对于其他国家经济增长的相对水平。自1980年以来,美国GDP的全球份额显著提升大概有三个阶段:

第一阶段是1981-1985年里根的第一任时期。在此期间,美国经济增长强劲,美国GDP的全球份额由1980年的25.9%上升到1985年的35.66%,美元指数也于1985年达到历史峰值143。

第二阶段是1995-2001年克林顿时期。由于互联网和信息技术革命带来了美国经济的高科技繁荣,美国GDP的全球份额于2001年达到32.5%,美元指数也达到了115。

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