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我国经济向好是人民币汇率稳定的支撑

2017-09-20 08:47:26   中国经济网

本期执笔 阳爱姣

【农村金融时报】

最近,人民币汇率再次成为海内外关注的热点。

今年5月以来,人民币对美元不断走强,直至突破1美元兑6.5元人民币大关并创下自2016年5月份以来的新高。随后,央行发布文件调整外汇风险准备金政策要求,9月11日起,外汇风险准备金率从20%调整为0%。12日,人民币兑美元中间价下调280基点至6.5277,结束连续11日上涨。

下一步人民币外汇市场怎么走?万众瞩目。

其实早在今年两会上,中国人民银行行长周小川针对记者关于“人无贬基”的提问时就表示,看待人民币汇率,很大程度上要看经济是否健康,金融是否稳定,从目前来看,人民币没有持续贬值基础。

而今年来我国的各项健康的经济指标以及趋稳的金融形势进一步验证了“人无贬基”的论断。

国家统计局和央行公布的2017年上半年数据显示,今年上半年GDP同比增长6.9%,超过2016年各季度的增速;城镇新增就业735万人,完成年度目标的66.8%;PPP项目加速落地,企业生产活动增加,企业中长期贷款持续保持高速增长态势,今年前7个月月均同比多增2674亿元;M2同比增长9.4%。

除此以外,随着“防风险”成为国内宏观调控的又一大重点,金融监管政策全面加强,经济运行稳中向好态势趋于明显。

有专家指出,正是得益于经济形势基本面的转好,人民币吸引力增强,使得近期人民币一路走强,汇率趋稳。

事实上,运用汇率最多的场合是国际贸易和投资。随着中国出口贸易通过转型升级走向中高端,出口“含金量”和竞争力不断提升。2017年上半年,我国净出口对增长拉动转正,贸易顺差1.28万亿元,装备制造和高附加值产品出口增长明显。同时,中国美国商会发布的2016年度商务环境调查报告显示,68%的会员企业有扩大在华投资的计划,中国的外资吸引仍十分强劲。出口和投资的拉动为我国积累了厚实的外汇储备。这为我国应对全球不确定性、保持汇率基本稳定,更添底气。

经济强则货币强,对人民币汇率的稳定我们应充满信心。同时要认识到,为进一步维持人民币汇率的基本稳定,最根本的还是需要宏观经济的稳定发展,同时要完善跨境资本流动管理,坚持汇率市场化大方向、完善汇率管理模式,维护金融市场稳定。

可以预见的是,在供给侧结构性改革持续推进、转型升级和动能转换步伐进一步加快的背景下,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的积极因素将不断增强,中国经济稳中向好的态势将继续向纵深发展。随着我国经济增长的稳定性、协调性增强,人民币汇率稳定的趋势也将会持续;同时,人民币汇率的稳定也能支持有需要的企业发展,降低远期换汇风险,推动进出口贸易稳定、有序发展,从而进一步促进我国经济良性发展。

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