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人民币兑美元回调空间有限

2017-09-22 08:02:06   中国经济网

随着美联储“缩表”尘埃落定,美元指数短线反弹,人民币兑美元汇率则顺势回落。21日,人民币兑美元中间价、即期价双双下调近200基点,均创近三周新低。市场人士指出,美联储9月议息会议宣布10月起启动“缩表”,并暗示12月仍可能加息,短期利好美元指数,但其涨势并未延续也表明提振动力有限。整体来看,近期美元走弱和人民币走强不大可能在年内有明显反转,预计后续人民币汇率回调空间有限,年内将延续双向波动格局。

人民币顺势回落

北京时间9月21日凌晨2点,美联储公布9月FOMC会议决议,维持1.00-1.25%利率不变,并维持点阵图预测的加息节奏不变,正式宣布10月启动“缩表”,且会议暗示年内仍将继续加息的可能性较大。

决议声明公布后,美元指数大幅上升0.7%至92.5,离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中急跌约200基点至6.5850。在此背景下,21日人民币兑美元中间价调贬197个基点,报6.5867,创9月1日以来新低,为连续三日调贬。

人民币兑美元即期汇率周四亦大幅下跌至月内新低,盘中一度跌破6.6元关口至逾三周低点。截至北京时间21日16:30,在岸人民币兑美元收盘价报6.5934元,较上一交易日跌192个基点,盘中最低触及6.6066元;离岸人民币兑美元即期汇率继续下跌70基点,报6.5931元,盘中最低触及6.6030元,境内外价差倒挂约35基点。

有交易员透露,昨日早盘时段人民币下探6.6元后结汇需求涌出,加上部分隔夜美元多头头寸离场,缓和人民币跌势;午后购汇需求进一步增加,人民币跌势再起,与离岸人民币形成小幅倒挂。

全球汇市方面,昨日美元指数由涨转跌,截至北京时间21日17:00报92.3781,下跌0.09%。对此市场人士点评称,尽管美联储声明偏鹰派,但整体仍符合市场预期,对美元的提振作用有限,市场的表现也证明了这一点。

双向波动将延续

分析人士指出,考虑到美联储此次“缩表”和12月加息已经被市场所预期,年内美联储货币政策紧缩的外溢效应并不大,短期内美元的反弹或令人民币汇率在一定程度上走贬,但近期美元的走弱和人民币的走强不大可能在年内有明显反转,预计年内人民币汇率走势将维持双向波动。

申万宏源证券表示,从近期通胀数据来看,短期内美国通胀难出现趋势性改善,年内美联储加息仍有掣肘,美元指数低位难上。加上英、欧货币政策趋于收紧,整体来看,海外“英欧强美弱”的格局整体对人民币汇率以及国内债市影响持续偏利好。

中信证券指出,虽然人民币过快升值的势头已经逆转,但大幅贬值也不现实,一方面,今年5月26日逆周期调节因子的引入,在弱化前一日收盘价对中间价的影响的同时,加强了央行的调控能力,有助于预防美元走强造成的市场非理性波动,另一方面,中美利差高于历史均值,提供了较厚的“安全垫”,跨境资本不致过快流出。综上,预计下半年人民币将会在双向波动中小幅贬值。

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