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央行金融所所长孙国峰:人民币汇率没有持续贬值的基础
2017-09-21 06:57:19 中国经济网
中国人民银行金融研究所所长孙国峰在近日举行的芝加哥大学&布斯商学院中国高峰论坛上表示,最近人民币汇率升值的态势表明,人民币没有长期贬值的基础。
针对最近出现的人民币相对美元贬值放缓和人民币略微升值的情况,孙国峰认为,这是反映基本面的一个必然结果。人民币汇率根本上取决于中国的国际收支状况。国际收支包括经常项目和资本项目两大块。经常项目主要是货物贸易,中国在出口方面还有很强竞争力,过去五年在全球贸易萎缩的背景下,中国出口在全球出口市场中的份额仍不断上升,超过美国、欧洲、日本和英国等。“我们将中国的贸易顺差以及经常项目顺差与GDP的比例控制在国际认可的水平内。由于经济体量增长,GDP也在增长,因此以货物贸易顺差为主的经常项目顺差的绝对额保持在一定水平,这说明经常项下我们还有稳定的外汇流入。”孙国峰说。
孙国峰进一步指出,资本项目在前两年有一些调整,有几个因素:一是外债的提前归还。在去年年中之前,这个过程已基本到位,相当部分的外债已提前归还,下半年外债项下又开始有外汇流入。二是对外直接投资(ODI)的高速增长带来的外汇流出,这和中国经济发展阶段有关。按照国际经验,当人均收入超过5000美元之后,ODI有一个加速的过程,中国也不例外,现在看ODI已趋于平稳。此外也有一些非正常和暂时的因素。这两大流出因素趋于缓和,再考虑到中国更加开放债券市场,会吸引资本的流入,资本项目也将趋于平衡。
从这个意义上说,过去我们讲人民币汇率没有持续贬值的基础,这是符合事实的,也符合客观规律,现在这个规律在不断体现出来,为事实所验证。(金辉)
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